????本周，美國國會的一份報告明確建議，美國公司與政府部門應(yīng)該排斥兩家中國最大的電信公司。報告稱，從這兩家公司購買設(shè)備將威脅美國國家安全。美國眾議院情報委員會（the House Intelligence Committee）對兩家中國公司——華為（Huawei Technologies）與中興（ZTE Corp.）——展開毀滅性打擊，似乎給美國公司帶來了巨大的發(fā)展機會。可事實上，美國公司面臨的境況可能截然相反。

????據(jù)貿(mào)易政策專家稱，為了反擊美國國會的攻擊，中國可能會提高關(guān)稅、或者禁止進口某些設(shè)備，從而對美國科技進口設(shè)置障礙。這種策略將使美國公司受到嚴(yán)重傷害，因為美國公司的銷售與增長越來越依賴中國。可謂利害攸關(guān)。據(jù)美國商務(wù)部（the Commerce Department）公布，去年，美國公司向中國出售的高新技術(shù)價值200億美元。加州大學(xué)（University of California）洛杉磯分校商學(xué)教授克里斯托弗?唐致力于研究制造業(yè)與中國市場，他說：“我認(rèn)為中國肯定會進行報復(fù)性的反擊。這是一場政治博弈。”

????這份由兩黨共同推出的國會報告似乎專門針對華為和中興。這兩家跨國公司銷售通話連接和互聯(lián)網(wǎng)通信路由設(shè)備。調(diào)查人員稱，中國政府可能參與了其中的關(guān)鍵技術(shù)，監(jiān)視和竊取商業(yè)機密。他們稱，這兩家公司均未提供證明其公司控制權(quán)和與中國政府關(guān)系的具體證據(jù)。公司總部設(shè)立黨支部的事實也在調(diào)查人員心中亮起紅燈。（注意，這兩家公司都不是所謂的SOE，即國有企業(yè)。）

????10月10日，中國商務(wù)部（the Commerce Ministry）發(fā)言人沈丹陽在新華社（Xinhua news agency）的一篇報道中回應(yīng)稱，這種指責(zé)的依據(jù)僅僅是“主觀猜忌”和“不實依據(jù)”。他認(rèn)為，美國此舉違反了其一直堅持的自由市場原則，將破壞兩國之間的合作與發(fā)展。沈丹陽說：“我們希望美國能做出切實努力，為兩國公司創(chuàng)造一個公平、公正的市場環(huán)境，促進兩國經(jīng)濟與貿(mào)易關(guān)系的健康發(fā)展。”

????市場調(diào)查公司ACG Research的主理合伙人瑞?摩塔認(rèn)為，從短期來看，思科（Cisco Systems）和瞻博網(wǎng)絡(luò)（Juniper Networks）等美國公司可能從中受益。因為它們的中國競爭對手忙于彌補聲譽損失的時候，美國公司可能贏得更多合同。但摩塔解釋說，從長期來看，美國科技公司免不了陷入動蕩。貿(mào)易戰(zhàn)一旦爆發(fā)，它們就會失去在中國的所有業(yè)務(wù)。他說：“這取決于中國政府態(tài)度的強硬程度。它可能給美國公司帶來傷害。”

????達特茅斯學(xué)院（Dartmouth College）商學(xué)教授理查德?德阿凡尼預(yù)計，中國肯定會采取報復(fù)措施，但中國政府不會立即進行反擊，而是會靜待時機。此外，別指望中國政府會提前發(fā)表什么重大聲明，這可不是他們的一貫作風(fēng)。他說：“我認(rèn)為，中國會采取更加圓滑的手段。中國人很少會直接反擊，反而會旁敲側(cè)擊，或者通過其他途徑發(fā)出信號，告訴你：‘我生氣了’。”

????A congressional report this week recommended in no uncertain terms that U.S. companies and government agencies avoid two of China's biggest telecommunications companies. Buying equipment from them risks national security, the report said. The House Intelligence Committee's withering attack on the two Chinese companies, Huawei Technologies and ZTE Corp., would seem like a big opportunity for U.S. firms to gain ground. The reality for U.S. businesses, however, could be the very opposite.

????In response to the congressional assault, China may throw up roadblocks against the U.S. tech imports by raising tariffs or prohibiting certain kinds of equipment, according to trade policy experts. Such a tactic would harm U.S. companies, which increasingly count on China for sales and growth. The stakes are huge. Last year, U.S. firms sold $20 billion in advanced technology to China, according to the Commerce Department. "I'm afraid that there will be some sort of retaliatory attack," said Christopher Tang, a business professor at University of California at Los Angeles whose focus is manufacturing and China. "It's a political game."

????The bipartisan congressional report looked exclusively at Huawei and ZTE, two global businesses that sell gear for connecting phone calls and routing Internet traffic. Investigators said that China's government could tamper with the technology to spy and to steal trade secrets. Both companies failed to provide details about their corporate control and government ties, they said. The presence of Communist Party offices in the companies' headquarters also raised red flags. (Note that neither is a so-called SOE, state-owned enterprise.)

????On October 10, Shen Danyang, a spokesman for China's Commerce Ministry, responded in an article by the official Xinhua news agency that the accusations were based on "subjective guesswork" and "untrue evidence." He said that the U.S. had violated its long-held free-market principles and risked undermining cooperation and development between the two countries. "We hope the United States can make concrete efforts to create a just and fair market environment for the two countries' companies and promote a sound development of bilateral economic and trade ties," Shen said.

????In the short-term, Ray Mota, managing partner for ACG Research, a market research firm that tracks the technology industry, said that U.S. companies like Cisco Systems (CSCO) and Juniper Networks (JNPR) would benefit. While their Chinese rivals try to repair their reputations, U.S. companies will likely win more contracts. Longer-term, however, U.S. tech companies may be in for turbulence, Mota explained. If a trade war starts, they will likely lose business in China. "It depends on how much hardball the Chinese government wants to play," he said. "This is something that could hurt U.S. companies."

????Richard D'Aveni, a business professor at Dartmouth College, predicted that China would indeed retaliate, but that it would wait until later rather than acting quickly. And don't expect a big announcement because it's not their style. "I think the Chinese will be more subtle," said D'Aveni, who is the author of Strategic Capitalism: The New Economic Strategy for Winning the Capitalism Cold War. "The Chinese don't usually react directly. They will strike somewhere else, or in some other way to send a signal that they are displeased."