????上周三舉行的蘋果iPhone 5發(fā)布會(huì)上，一切事實(shí)和數(shù)據(jù)都大白于天下。大家的共識(shí)是：蘋果公司（Apple）并未改變?nèi)魏稳说氖澜纾麄冞€是會(huì)賺個(gè)盆滿缽滿！

????對(duì)此本人還有一些想法如下：

????蘋果的保密能力正在遭受挑戰(zhàn)。《紐約時(shí)報(bào)》（The New York Times）的尼克?比爾頓在一篇短文中引用了我的觀點(diǎn)，稱蘋果再也不擅長(zhǎng)保守秘密了。他的理由是，新iPhone 5的照片和發(fā)布會(huì)日期早在幾個(gè)月前就已經(jīng)廣為人知了。此話不假。不過我還是得挑挑這個(gè)說法的刺。首先，雖然發(fā)布會(huì)的主角早就曝光了，但還有其他配角并沒有露出真容。我就沒聽到有傳言說這次發(fā)布會(huì)將推出新款iPod和升級(jí)的iTunes Store。另一方面，傳言還說蘋果會(huì)發(fā)布一款更小的iPad，這話也并沒有說中。更切題的討論其實(shí)應(yīng)該是保密工作到底有多重要。我在自己的書中專辟了一章談保密問題，毫無疑問，它正是蘋果公司企業(yè)文化不可分割的一部分。不過正如我跟比爾頓所說的，隨著蘋果成為一家規(guī)模超大的全球性公司，與蘋果用戶的規(guī)模比起來，產(chǎn)品博客的重要性正在下降。絕大多數(shù)蘋果用戶是否決定購買蘋果產(chǎn)品，取決于他們對(duì)上周三舉辦的這類蘋果特有的營銷活動(dòng)的反應(yīng)，而不是蘋果產(chǎn)品網(wǎng)站上狂熱粉絲們的評(píng)測(cè)。我曾經(jīng)下過結(jié)論稱，隨著蘋果公司規(guī)模不斷擴(kuò)大，復(fù)雜程度不斷提高，其保密守則的執(zhí)行能力自然也會(huì)隨之下降。而沒有回答過的問題是，這種情況到底會(huì)帶來多大的影響。

????對(duì)蘋果的期望值已高不可攀。用財(cái)經(jīng)網(wǎng)站Breakingviews.com的話來說，這次大家對(duì)蘋果新品發(fā)布會(huì)的共同看法是“讓人打盹”。但這主要是由于iPhone 5漸進(jìn)式的改進(jìn)再也無法像它原來那些震撼世界的新產(chǎn)品那樣令人激動(dòng)不已。不過，我們還是很容易衡量蘋果是否滿足了所有人對(duì)其抱有的商業(yè)高要求。比如，富國銀行（Wells Fargo）的研究分析師梅納德?烏姆去年就曾對(duì)客戶表示，他預(yù)計(jì)iPhone 5的銷量將超過iPhone 4S，因?yàn)樘O果公司現(xiàn)在會(huì)與更多運(yùn)營商合作，推出新品的周期也更短了。蘋果曾宣布，iPhone 4S開售三天內(nèi)銷量就達(dá)到了400萬臺(tái)，也因此給它自己設(shè)定了一個(gè)難以打破的高難目標(biāo)。

????從周邊產(chǎn)品榨取價(jià)值。蘋果還發(fā)布了叫做EarPods的新款頭戴式耳機(jī)，同時(shí)改進(jìn)了閃電數(shù)據(jù)線，使它變得更小巧，還能折疊。烏姆曾表示，這類配件往往會(huì)讓蘋果獲利頗豐。這些當(dāng)然都是些不值一提的小玩意兒，但它也表明蘋果是多么能大把摟錢。發(fā)布會(huì)后，蘋果產(chǎn)品營銷副總裁格里格?喬斯瓦克告訴我，蘋果將發(fā)售一款能讓舊數(shù)據(jù)線連到新設(shè)備的轉(zhuǎn)換器，售價(jià)29美元。如果你和我一樣，也使用了蘋果的產(chǎn)品，那就有可能在某些時(shí)候需要這類東西。

????果粉哈欠連天，投資者一片喝彩。華爾街喜歡蘋果的漸進(jìn)式改進(jìn)，尤其是他們理解了其中奧妙所在之后。周四盤中蘋果的股價(jià)上漲2%，也就是每股上漲了14美元。這意味著蘋果的市值增加了130億美元。呃，這還是很讓人失望。盡管已經(jīng)站到了684美元的高位，但蘋果的股價(jià)還是便宜得可笑。現(xiàn)在的股價(jià)已經(jīng)是投資者希望蘋果在2013財(cái)年實(shí)現(xiàn)的盈利目標(biāo)的13倍之多，但對(duì)一個(gè)像蘋果這樣飛速增長(zhǎng)的公司來說，這個(gè)倍數(shù)還是太低了。而基金公司伯恩斯坦（Bernstein）的托尼?薩克納吉將他對(duì)蘋果的目標(biāo)股價(jià)從750美元調(diào)高到了800美元。

????譯者：清遠(yuǎn)

????The facts and figures are all out from the iPhone 5 launch on Wednesday. The consensus: Apple didn't change anyone's world. But they're going to make a lot of money!

????Here are some additional thoughts:

????Apple's secret-keeping abilities are being challenged. Nick Bilton of The New York Times quoted me in a brief post suggesting Apple (AAPL) isn't any good at keeping secrets anymore. His evidence is that photos of the new iPhone 5 and the date of Apple's event itself leaked many months ago. True that. I'd quibble with a couple strains of the argument, though. First, though the meat of the event leaked, there were elements that didn't. I heard no chatter that the event would include new iPods and a refreshed iTunes Store. On the other hand, the rumor mill also had Apple releasing a smaller iPad, which didn't happen. More to the point is how much this matters. I devoted a chapter in my book to secrecy, and there's no question it's an integral part of the Apple culture. Still, as I told Bilton, with Apple becoming a massive global company, the relevance of product blogs declines in relation to the size of Apple's customer's base. The vast majority of Apple's customers will be basing their decisions on their reactions to the typical Apple marketing maneuvers that ground into gear Wednesday, not to fanboy analysis of Apple product sites. I have asserted that Apple's ability to enforce its code of silence will degrade as a natural result of its size and increasing complexity. The unanswered question is how much it matters.

????Expectations for Apple are sky-high. The consensus is that Apple's presentation was, in the words of Breakingviews.com, a "snooze." But that's largely because incremental improvements are never as exciting as earth-shatteringly new products. Still, it will be easy to measure if Apple lives up to the demanding business expectations everyone has for it. For example, Maynard Um, a research analyst with Wells Fargo, told clients he expects sales of the iPhone 5 will exceed those of the iPhone 4S last year because Apple is launching with more cell-phone companies around the world and in a shorter time frame. Apple announced that it sold 4 million units of the iPhone 4S in the first three days it was available, thus setting up a high bogey for itself to beat.

????Sweating the details. Apple also unveiled new headphones, or EarPods, and revamped "Lightning" connector cord, which is smaller and reversible. Wells Fargo's Um noted that accessories typically carry high margins for Apple. This is hum-drum, of course, but it also points to how Apple rakes in the cash. Greg Joswiak, an Apple product marketing vice-president, told me after the event the adaptor Apple will sell to help connect your old cords to the new devices will cost $29. If you're like me, at some point, you're going to need a few of those.

????Fanboys yawn, investors applaud. Wall Street liked Apple's incrementalism, especially after having an opportunity to digest it. By midday Apple's shares were up 2% Thursday, or about $14 a share. That's about $13 billion in additional market value. Ho-hum. At $684, Apple's shares remain laughably cheap. They are worth about 13 times what investors expect Apple to earn in its 2013 fiscal year, a low multiple for a company growing as fast as Apple. Bernstein's Toni Sacconaghi raised his price target on Apple's shares to $800 from $750.