????美國的99%人群可能很快就會迎來新成員——高盛（Goldman Sachs）員工。.

????隨著新的監(jiān)管條例實(shí)施、交易減少和法律賠付影響到高盛（Goldman）的盈利能力，預(yù)計(jì)到明年年底該公司的人均薪酬可能減少近10萬美元。這一結(jié)論來自其競爭對手摩根大通（JPMorgan Chase）旗下歐洲子公司Cazenove最近發(fā)布的一份報(bào)告。

????就在短短兩年前，高盛的年度人均薪酬仍然高達(dá)412,000美元，包括從IT員工到CEO勞埃德?布蘭克費(fèi)恩在內(nèi)的所有員工。這樣的薪資水平讓這家精英投行的員工們躋身美國收入最高的1%人群。去年，1%和99%的分水嶺是368,000美元。

????但Cazenove 的分析師們預(yù)計(jì)，到明年年底，高盛人均薪酬將降至314,000美元。果真如此，高盛人均薪酬將逼近全美前2%的下限。2%和98%的分水嶺約為290,000美元。

????當(dāng)然，這還遠(yuǎn)遠(yuǎn)談不上對這些“宇宙主宰者”構(gòu)成毀滅性打擊，當(dāng)初有些人也曾經(jīng)希望這場金融危機(jī)能帶來這樣的效果。而且，需要注意的是這是平均薪酬。高盛的銀行家們中仍有很多人歲入百萬。2011年，布蘭克費(fèi)恩就拿到了1,200萬美元。

????回到2008-2009年，當(dāng)時人們正在熱議，華爾街接近崩潰和政府不得不插手救助的事實(shí)是不是應(yīng)該讓金融公司重新考慮如何支付員工薪資以及支付多少。華盛頓任命了“薪酬沙皇”肯尼思?范伯格負(fù)責(zé)審核接受政府救助企業(yè)的高管薪酬。美國聯(lián)邦儲備委員會（Federal Reserve）制定了銀行業(yè)薪酬指引。薪酬“追討”條款成為范本。

????但薪酬數(shù)字的改變沒有那么多。看上去唯一對華爾街人士的荷包產(chǎn)生一點(diǎn)影響的是多德-弗蘭克法案（Dodd-Frank）和其他新的國際資本金要求，這或許是為什么銀行家們?nèi)绱烁呗暦磳Φ脑颉?/p>

????高盛是受影響最大的公司之一。多德-弗蘭克法案禁止高盛和其他公司從事某些高利潤和高風(fēng)險業(yè)務(wù)，包括自營交易和對沖基金投資，這些一向是高盛賺取大量利潤的業(yè)務(wù)。而且，新規(guī)還要求高盛和其他公司保有更多現(xiàn)金，而不是將它們用于放貸或投資。

????總之，摩根大通的分析師們表示，如果高盛不做出改變，監(jiān)管改革將使得該公司的股權(quán)回報(bào)率降至10%。就在這場金融危機(jī)爆發(fā)前不久，高盛的這項(xiàng)盈利能力指標(biāo)還在17%，而在過去有很多年，該指標(biāo)甚至還曾經(jīng)大大高于17%。

????分析人士預(yù)計(jì)，高盛將采取裁員、減薪的措施，期望降低成本和修復(fù)利潤。高盛可能會在投行業(yè)務(wù)部門再裁4,400人。截至第一季度末，高盛的員工總數(shù)已較過去一年減少了約2,000人。

????不過，高盛的人均收入預(yù)計(jì)仍高于同行。據(jù)摩根大通預(yù)測，所有公司投資銀行家的平均薪酬將為233,000美元，低于這些法規(guī)實(shí)施前的303,000美元。但這個數(shù)字實(shí)際上可能可以更高一些，因?yàn)檫@些分析師們沒有將摩根大通自己的數(shù)據(jù)納入分析。咨詢顧問們表示，摩根大通的薪酬目前堪比高盛，如果納入分析，必定拉高全行業(yè)的平均值。

????報(bào)告預(yù)計(jì)瑞信（Credit Suisse）是緊隨高盛之后、全球薪酬第二高的投資銀行，平均薪酬達(dá)到了280,000美元。摩根士丹利（Morgan Stanley）的平均薪酬可能降至244,000美元，僅躋身全美前3%。哀哉，華爾街！

????譯者：早稻米

????The 99% may soon have some new members - employees of Goldman Sachs.

????The average compensation at Goldman (GS) is likely to fall by nearly $100,000 by the end of next year as new regulations, fewer deals and legal payouts hurt the firm's profitability. That's the conclusion of a recent report from a European division of rival JPMorgan Chase (JPM).

????As recently as two years ago, Goldman's annual pay, which includes everyone from the people who work in the firm's IT department to CEO Lloyd Blankfein, had averaged $412,000. That salary put employees of the elite investment bank solidly in the top 1% of all earners in the United States. Last year, the cut off for the 1% was $368,000.

????But by the end of next year, though, analysts at JPMorgan Cazenove expect compensation at Goldman to average just $314,000. That will bump the average Goldmanite all the way down to near the bottom of the top 2% of all U.S. earners. The cut off for the 98% tops out at around $290,000.

????Needless to say, this is not nearly the crushing blow to the Masters of the Universe that some hoped the financial crisis would be. And remember this is average compensation. There are still plenty of Goldman bankers who make millions. Blankfein was paid $12 million for 2011.

????Back in 2008 and 2009, though, there was talk that the near collapse of Wall Street, and the fact that the government had to come to the rescue, would force financial firms to rethink how, and how much, they pay their employees. Washington appointed a pay czar. The Federal Reserve instituted new rules. Clawback provisions became the norm.

????But the dollar figures haven't changed all that much. The only thing that does appear to have made a slight dent in Wall Streeters' wallets is Dodd-Frank and some other new international capital requirements, which is why, perhaps, bankers have objected so loudly.

????Goldman has been among the most impacted. Dodd-Frank bars the firm, and others, from certain high-profit, and high-risk, businesses, including proprietary trading and hedge fund investing, where Goldman has historically made a good deal of its profits. What's more, the new requirements will cause Goldman and other firms to hang onto more of their cash, rather then lend it out or invest it.

????All told, the analysts at JPMorgan say, if Goldman were to do nothing, regulatory reforms will knock the firm's return on equity, a key measure of profitability, down to 10% from 17% shortly before the financial reforms went into place, though in many years it was much higher than that.

????In response, the analysts believe Goldman will cut employees and salaries in order to lower costs and repair profits. Goldman is likely to send an additional 4,400 people from its investment banking division packing. As of the first quarter, Goldman's staff had already shrunk by about 2,000 in the past year.

????Goldmanites are still expected to take home more than rivals. According to the JPMorgan's projections, the average investment banker at all firms will make $233,000, down from $303,000, before the regulations. But that figure may actually be higher. The JPMorgan analysts didn't include their own firm in the analysis. Consultants say the firm's compensation now rivals Goldman's pay, which would bring up the industry-wide average.

????Credit Suisse, in the survey, was expected to be the second highest paying investment bank in the world after Goldman at an average pay of $280,000. The average comp at Morgan Stanley (MS) could drop to $244,000, which would put that firm's employees in the top 3% of all U.S. earnings. Woe is Wall Street.