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六月美國汽車銷量猛增勢

六月美國汽車銷量猛增勢

Doron Levin 2012-07-06
美國汽車業急需一場翻身仗來提升氣勢。6月份,美國汽車銷量增長了60%,增幅高于分析人士預期。這個意外的驚喜讓汽車業內人士倍感振奮。

????作為消費者信心的關鍵衡量指標,美國汽車銷量6月份增長了22%——豐田汽車公司(Toyota Motor)業績強勁反彈,領跑群雄。與去年6月相比,豐田利潤增長了60%。而當時,豐田正經歷震后災情,又因海嘯而遷址,境況頗為糟糕。

????汽車行業6月份的這張銷售成績單比分析人士先前預期的要好。而僅僅兩周前,這些分析師還預測,汽車銷量將連續第二個月表現不佳。截至今年4月,鑒于銷售步伐明顯放緩,一些華爾街分析師調低了對2012年的銷量預測。而汽車網站TrueCar.com的市場情報副總裁杰西?托普拉克則表示:“盡管過去兩個月來銷量相對放緩,但是,憑借與去年同期相比更強勁的銷量、處于歷史高位的成交價格和精準的消費刺激投放,汽車業的盈利狀況將會繼續改善。”

????據汽車網站Edmunds.com的分析師杰西卡?考德威爾推測,由于汽車廠商紛紛在6月底加大促銷力度,每銷售季調整一次的全年汽車銷量預測被上調到略高于1,400萬輛。她還說,當5月份發布的全年預計銷量不足1,400萬輛時,廠商都使出渾身解數,希望保住銷售增長的勢頭——尤其是因為6月底也標志著第二財季收尾。而一年以前,6月份發布的2011年預計銷量是1,180萬輛。

????據TrueCar網站稱,通過比較新車的成交價可以看出,與去年相比,今年購車者要為每輛車多花約900美元。6月的平均成交價是30,508美元,高于一年前的29,659美元。其中大眾公司(Volkswagen)新車的平均成交價最高,達到33,368美元,起亞/現代(Kia/Hyundai)最低,為22,121美元。

????豐田公司有兩款車最為暢銷,分別是中級車凱美瑞(Camry)和緊湊車卡羅拉(Corolla)。在豐田大為改觀的成績單上,它們占據了極大的份額。凱美瑞的銷量增長超過了50%,而卡羅拉則超過了40%。

????無獨有偶,本田公司(Honda)的銷量也增長了近50%,這表明兩大日本汽車巨頭正重回正軌,奪回失去的美國汽車市場份額。而通用汽車(General Motors)和福特公司(Ford Motor)卻要奮力保住既有的份額。今年通用的市場份額是18.1%,而去年中旬是19.9%;福特今年的市場份額是15.7%,與去年的15.9%相比略有下滑。

????位于密歇根州奧本山(Auburn Hills)的克萊斯勒公司(Chrysler)62%的股份為意大利汽車廠商菲亞特(Fiat)持有。一年前,它在美國市場的份額是10%,今年則升至11.2%。總體來看,乘用車的銷售增長要高于皮卡、運動型汽車和小型貨車的銷售增長。這是因為,更新、更小也更輕的車型,如雪佛蘭科魯茲(Chevrolet Cruze)、福特福克斯(Ford Focus)、現代伊蘭特(Hyundai Elantra)和道奇達特(Dodge Dart)等,油耗更低、里程數更長,因此它們在經銷商處亮相的第一個月,消費者就紛紛下單購買。

????美國汽車銷售的持續穩步增長與其他關鍵指標產生了矛盾,比如由美國經濟咨商會(Conference Board)發布的消費者信心指數(Consumer Confidence Index)。6月份這一指數已經連續4個月下滑。汽車老化時,消費者往往只能推遲購買新車,直到維持舊車正常運行的費用超過了購置新車的費用時,才會購置新車。

????U.S. auto sales, a fundamental measure of consumer confidence, rose 22% in June -- led by a rebounding Toyota Motor Corp. Toyota posted a 60% gain over last June when it was beset with post-earthquake and tsunami dislocation.

????June results came in stronger than expected by analysts, who just two weeks ago were predicting a second straight month of less-than-stellar sales. Some Wall Street analysts cut back their 2012 forecasts based on the apparent slowdown from the year's pace through April. "Despite the relative slowdown in the last two months, the auto industry continues to experience improved profitability with strong year-over-year sales, historically high transaction prices and precise incentives spending," said Jesse Toprak, Vice President of Market Intelligence for TrueCar.com.

????Jessica Caldwell, an analyst for automotive website Edmunds.com, speculated that an end-of month sales push by manufacturers increased raised the seasonally adjust annual rate to just over 14 million units. After a sub 14-million rate in May, automakers were eager to maintain the industry's sales momentum -- especially because the end of June also marked the end of the second fiscal quarter, she said. A year ago June's sales rate was 11.8 million.

????A comparison of transaction prices for new vehicles shows that consumers are spending about $900 more per vehicle this year than they were a year ago, according to TrueCar. The average transaction price in June was $30,508, up from $29,659 a year earlier. Volkswagen had the highest average transaction price on new vehicles sold last month at $33,368 and Kia/Hyundai the lowest at $22,121.

????Toyota's (TM) two best-selling sedans, the midsize Camry and the compact Corolla, accounted for a disproportionate segment of the automaker's improvement. Camry sales were up more than 50% and Corolla more than 40%.

????Honda (HMC) sales rose nearly 50% as well signifying that two of the big Japanese makers are on track to regain lost market share in the U.S., while General Motors Co. (GM) and Ford Motor Co. (F) fight to hang on to share. GM's share this year is 18.1%, compared with 19.9% at the midpoint of last year; Ford's share is 15.7%, down from 15.9%.

????Chrysler, based in Auburn Hills, Michigan and 62% owned by Italian automaker Fiat SpA, raised its share of the U.S. market at mid year to 11.2% from 10% a year ago.

????The increase in passenger car sales outpaced the increased sales of pickup trucks, sport utilities and minivans, as consumers took advantage of better-mileage in newer, smaller, lighter models like the Chevrolet Cruze, Ford Focus, Hyundai Elantra and Dodge Dart, in its first month at dealerships.

????The steadily strengthening U.S. auto sales contradict other key indicators, such as the The Conference Board's Consumer Confidence Index, which declined in June for the fourth month in a row. As vehicles get older, consumers can only delay purchases for so long until the expense of keeping clunkers in running order outstrips the cost of replacement.

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