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派息有利增加GDP

派息有利增加GDP

Nin-Hai Tseng 2012-04-09
如果美國企業界不想把龐大的現金儲備用于招募更多員工,他們應該考慮增加派息。增加派息對美國個人收支的影響可能超乎想象。

??? 這當然有助于改變歷來對現金使用持謹慎態度的硅谷高管們的心態。正如已故的蘋果公司首席執行官史蒂夫?喬布斯拒絕派息一樣,科技公司寧愿將現金留著用于可能的收購和其他投資。從某種角度而言,增加派息事實上說明公司可能對未來發展缺乏足夠的規劃。但在像今天這樣的經濟環境中,此類說法已經不再那么有說服力了,因為當前利率正處于歷史低點,現金儲備不太可能給公司帶來太多的回報,但卻仍在不斷增長。

????說句公道話,美國企業界已經開始不那么把錢袋子攥得緊緊的了。標準普爾(Standard & Poor's)上周二報告,今年前三個月,凈股息同比增長了27.6%,達到242億美元。第一季度有677家公司提高了派息,較2011年同期的510家公司增長了32%。

????“第一季度股息情況非常不錯,實際現金派息增長超過11%,期貨走勢預示股息率將達到歷史新高,不管是否將蘋果計算在內,”S&P Indices的高級指數分析師霍華德?希爾弗布拉特在一份聲明中稱。

????當然,他補充道,派息率仍處于歷史低位。股息占凈利潤比率的歷史平均值為52%,目前仍低于30%,接近低點。

????今年股息走向如何仍有待觀察,但迄今為止,開局不錯。或許隨后,消費者支出就會出現小幅增長。

????譯者:早稻米

????This certainly helps build the case for changing the mentality of Silicon Valley, where leadership has historically been cautious with their cash. And like the late Apple CEO Steve Jobs, who resisted giving dividends, tech companies would rather save cash for possible acquisitions and other investments. In a way, raising dividends might actually signal companies aren't planning enough for future growth. Such arguments become less convincing during economic environments like today's, since cash reserves keep rising and aren't likely returning much for companies at a time when interest rates are at record lows.

????To be fair, companies have started relaxing their purse strings. During the first three months this year, net dividend increased by 27.6% to $24.2 billion over the same period during the previous year, Standard & Poor's reported Tuesday. There were 677 dividend increases during the first quarter, a 32% rise compared with the 510 increases during the same period in 2011.

????"Dividends had another great quarter, with actual cash payments increasing over 11% and the forward indicated dividend rate reaching a new all-time high, with or without Apple," said Howard Silverblatt, S&P Indices' senior index analyst in a statement.

????To be sure, he adds, payout rates remain historically low. The percentage of net income paid out in dividends, which historically averages 52%, remains near its lows at under 30%.

????It remains to be seen where dividends go this year, but thus far they're off to a good start. Perhaps a small boost in consumer spending will come next.

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