????中國消費(fèi)者需要再接再厲，加大支出，唯有如此，中國經(jīng)濟(jì)才能避免硬著陸。但要實現(xiàn)這個目標(biāo)，前提是中國政府必須制定一系列改革方案，給予消費(fèi)者信心，讓他們停止儲蓄，外出購物。雖然政府當(dāng)前步驟的方向是正確的，但還需推出更多有力的舉措來提升中國消費(fèi)者的購買力，以避免中國經(jīng)濟(jì)的引擎驟然熄火——進(jìn)而導(dǎo)致西方國家經(jīng)濟(jì)偏離本已脆弱的復(fù)蘇軌道。

????中國政府上個月宣布2012年的經(jīng)濟(jì)增長目標(biāo)僅為7.5%，這一消息讓全球各地的經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家大驚失色。倘若美國這類成熟經(jīng)濟(jì)體能完成這么高的增長目標(biāo)，那將是一個驚人的壯舉，但對中國而言，這個增長目標(biāo)簡直低得嚇人。畢竟，在過去5年中（其中大多數(shù)年份恰恰處于全球金融危機(jī)爆發(fā)之后），中國經(jīng)濟(jì)的增速一直維持在9.2%到14.2%之間。

????自中國下調(diào)增長目標(biāo)以來，華爾街的交易員和基金經(jīng)理越來越擔(dān)心，中國經(jīng)濟(jì)或許將經(jīng)歷一段相當(dāng)困難的調(diào)整期，他們將其稱為經(jīng)濟(jì)“硬著陸”。何為硬著陸，何為不太嚴(yán)重的軟著陸，目前尚無具體的定義，但市場人士似乎普遍認(rèn)為，如果今年的經(jīng)濟(jì)增速低于4%到6%，中國就將經(jīng)歷一次硬著陸。再次說明一下，在更成熟的經(jīng)濟(jì)體中，這么高的增長率簡直是上天的恩賜，但對于中國經(jīng)濟(jì)的總體規(guī)劃而言，這樣的增速不啻為一個沉重的打擊。

????那么，中國如何才能防止硬著陸呢？中國政府認(rèn)為，中國經(jīng)濟(jì)增長最終需擺脫對風(fēng)云莫測的出口市場的依賴，轉(zhuǎn)而通過日益擴(kuò)大的消費(fèi)支出來刺激經(jīng)濟(jì)，實現(xiàn)內(nèi)生性增長。中國是一個指令型經(jīng)濟(jì)體，這意味著其領(lǐng)導(dǎo)人可以精心策劃，引領(lǐng)經(jīng)濟(jì)步入特定的發(fā)展軌道。按照中國的長期增長規(guī)劃，從出口大國向消費(fèi)驅(qū)動型經(jīng)濟(jì)體的轉(zhuǎn)型原本并不是設(shè)定在未來幾年發(fā)生的事情。但鑒于中國出口總額自2007年以來已經(jīng)下降了20%，中央的規(guī)劃部門被迫提前了進(jìn)程，專注于讓中國消費(fèi)者填補(bǔ)羸弱的出口增長留下的需求缺口。

????為了填補(bǔ)這一缺口，中國政府制定了詳實的計劃，中心環(huán)節(jié)在于增加政府開支。在中國政府批準(zhǔn)的2012年財政預(yù)算案中，赤字目標(biāo)規(guī)模占國內(nèi)生產(chǎn)總值（GDP）的2%，較2011年的1%出現(xiàn)了大幅提升。政府支出的增加部分將投資于基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施、教育、保障性住房、社會保障和醫(yī)保體系的建設(shè)。

????赤字支出固然有其好處，但它的規(guī)模和廣度似乎還不足以幫助中國經(jīng)濟(jì)維系高速增長。畢竟，中國政府幾年前在全球金融危機(jī)如火如荼之際推出的6千億美元刺激計劃取得的結(jié)果也只能算是喜憂參半。雖然這項救市計劃的規(guī)模不可謂不大，但它未能阻止各大經(jīng)濟(jì)體增速下滑的態(tài)勢。這可能是因為政府開支的方向主要集中在了固定資產(chǎn)投資領(lǐng)域（比如建造新港口，改善道路等），而不是推動消費(fèi)支出方面。政府預(yù)定給予社會項目的額外投資或許可以在一定程度上改善中國老百姓的生計，但并不一定有助于推動經(jīng)濟(jì)增長——至少無法把經(jīng)濟(jì)增速提升至足以彌補(bǔ)出口下降帶來的負(fù)面影響的水平。中國需要做的是提升消費(fèi)者的購買力，同時節(jié)省社會福利開支。

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????China's consumers need to step up and spend if the nation is to avoid an economic hard landing. But in order for that to happen, the Chinese government must institute a number of reforms to give the nation's consumers the confidence to stop saving and go shopping. While the government is taking steps in the right direction, more will be needed to arm Chinese consumers with the necessary buying power to keep the country's economic engine from sputtering out – threatening to derail the already fragile economic recovery in the West.

????Last month the Chinese government shocked economists around the globe by announcing that the nation's economic growth target for 2012 would be just 7.5%. While hitting such a growth target would be an amazing feat for a mature economy like the United States, it is scarily low for China. After all, the country grew between 9.2% and 14.2% over the last five years, most of which followed the rumblings of the global financial crisis.

????Since the target was lowered, traders and fund managers on Wall Street have become increasingly worried that China might experience a much harder economic correction, which they refer to as an economic "hard landing." There is no definition as to what would constitute a hard landing versus a less acute soft landing, but the general consensus seems to believe that China would have a hard landing if its economic growth rate for the year was below 4% to 6%. Again, such high growth rates would be welcomed in more mature economies, but for China, it would be a big blow to the nation's economic master plan.

????So how can China prevent a hard landing? The Chinese government believes that it needs to finally reduce its economic growth away from the fickle export market and stimulate more internal economic growth through increased consumer spending. China is a command economy, meaning that its leaders have elaborate plans that steer the nation on a certain economic path. The transition from export powerhouse to a consumer-driven economy wasn't set to occur for another few years in Beijing's long-term growth plans. But the 20% drop in Chinese exports since 2007 has forced the nation's central planners to move up the timeline and focus on the Chinese consumer to fill in the economic gaps left from weakening export growth.

????Beijing's plan to fill that gap centers on increased government spending. The Chinese government authorized a 2012 fiscal budget deficit target of 2% of GDP, up from 1% in 2011. The increase in spending will be invested in infrastructure, education, social housing, social security and healthcare.

????Deficit spending has its virtues, but the size and scope of the spending here doesn't seem to be adequate to get China's economy going. After all, the special $600 billion economic stimulus package the Chinese government made a couple years back at the height of the global financial crisis has had mixed results. The stimulus, as big as it was, failed to stem the nations declining growth rate. That may be because the scope of the spending was directed to fixed asset investment projects, like building a new port or improving a roadway, and not toward boosting consumer spending. The extra cash the government is slated to invest in social programs may make life better for the average Chinese citizen, but it won't necessarily help boost economic growth – at least not to levels needed to fill the gap from decreased exports. What China needs to do is empower its consumer base and save on the social welfare.

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