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5大改革有望重塑希臘經濟

5大改革有望重塑希臘經濟

Shawn Tully 2012-02-17
希臘的問題不全是債務,還包括競爭力問題,改變從游輪到醫藥等行業諸多不合理法規的問題,惟有這樣才能幫助希臘經濟重整旗鼓。

????當前,希臘的失業率已高達21%。過高的工資已迫使許多公司給員工發現金工資,不走賬面,以逃避社保稅。讓人難以相信的是,即便如此,希臘本來還計劃于7月份將全國范圍內的工資再次上調2.5%。本月,希臘政府終于做出了迄今為止最果斷的決定,取消了這次漲薪計劃,批準將大多數工人的最低工資下調22%,24歲以下員工的最低工資下調32%。

????這一調整應該會對各個級別的工資產生向下的連帶效應?!跋ED終于打破了(工資的)螺旋上升趨勢,”Alpha Bank駐雅典的經濟學家邁克?馬索拉基斯表示?!八鼞撃艽蠓岣邉趧恿κ袌龅男??!笔聦嵣?,新的法律嚴格限定員工們在公司層面進行工資協商,而不是在公司還沒有和員工協商時,一開始就設定大幅的工資上調。問題是:新機制的有效期僅為三年。2015年希臘可能恢復舊機制,這樣的前景降低了這一改革的歷史意義。

????總而言之,這些改革遭到了民眾的普遍地址,希臘顯然是迫于外界的重壓,才開始實行改革。它原本有可能不愿繼續承受留在歐元區內的痛苦,真的會選擇退出歐元的道路。但在掙扎了兩年后,它終于采取了正確的行動。然而,希臘的悲劇在于,一切可能已經為時過晚。

????譯者:zdm

????Today, unemployment in Greece stands at 21%. Wages are still so high that many employers pay workers cash, off the books, to avoid social security taxes. Incredibly, a raise of 2.5% was scheduled for July at the national level. But this month, in its most decisive move to date, the government dismantled the pay elevator. It passed a 22% decrease in the minimum wage for most workers, and a 32% drop from employees under the age of 24.

????The change should produce a reverse ripple effect lowering salaries at all levels. "Greece is finally breaking the spiral," says Michael Massourakis, an economist at Alpha Bank in Athens. "This could make labor markets far more efficient." In effect, the new law allows employers to negotiate strictly at the company level, instead of starting with a big, mandated wage increase before they even start talking to their own workers. The rub: The new system applies for three years. The possibility that Greece will return to the old system in 2015 dampens the significance of this historic reform.

????In conclusion, it's clear that Greece is only embracing these widely reviled reforms under intense pressure. It may indeed choose the route of exiting the euro over the pain of staying the course. But after two years of fiddling, it's finally making the right moves. The Greek tragedy is that it may be too late.

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