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5大改革有望重塑希臘經(jīng)濟(jì)

5大改革有望重塑希臘經(jīng)濟(jì)

Shawn Tully 2012-02-17
希臘的問(wèn)題不全是債務(wù),還包括競(jìng)爭(zhēng)力問(wèn)題,改變從游輪到醫(yī)藥等行業(yè)諸多不合理法規(guī)的問(wèn)題,惟有這樣才能幫助希臘經(jīng)濟(jì)重整旗鼓。

????眼下,雅典街道上滿是騷亂鬧事者,宏偉的大樓和星巴克(Starbucks)燃起滾滾濃煙。這一切動(dòng)蕩掩蓋了一場(chǎng)幾十年來(lái)從來(lái)沒(méi)有任何國(guó)家沒(méi)有嘗試過(guò)的大范圍市場(chǎng)解放運(yùn)動(dòng)。在國(guó)際貨幣基金組織(IMF)、歐盟(EU)和歐洲央行(European Central Bank)的三方小組(troika)重壓下,希臘新一屆帕帕季莫斯政府正在竭力推動(dòng)這場(chǎng)改革。希臘必須迅速實(shí)施一系列的歷史性改革,才能獲取三方小組的最新?lián)芨兜?,700億美元資金,避免3月中旬下一批債券到期時(shí)可能引發(fā)的災(zāi)難性違約。

????但改革的意義并不僅限于避免破產(chǎn)。如果希臘希望經(jīng)濟(jì)再度開(kāi)始增長(zhǎng),重現(xiàn)繁榮,這些改革措施同樣必不可少。目前,希臘工資猛漲,市場(chǎng)高度封閉、壟斷盛行、競(jìng)爭(zhēng)低下,在這樣的條件下,不改革不可能這樣的目標(biāo)。

????希臘的主要問(wèn)題是,多年來(lái)它的商品和服務(wù)(房地產(chǎn)、理發(fā)、保險(xiǎn))一直依賴(lài)內(nèi)銷(xiāo)的增長(zhǎng),無(wú)國(guó)際競(jìng)爭(zhēng)之虞。2001-2008年希臘享受消費(fèi)信貸繁榮之時(shí),這一模式看起來(lái)似乎可以奏效。但內(nèi)需的爆炸式增長(zhǎng)意味著工資飆升,導(dǎo)致希臘出口商品在國(guó)際市場(chǎng)上定價(jià)過(guò)高。同時(shí),希臘國(guó)產(chǎn)的家用電器和電子產(chǎn)品也無(wú)法與價(jià)格更便宜的德國(guó)或荷蘭商品競(jìng)爭(zhēng)。另外,希臘也沒(méi)有采取措施,全面改革旅游業(yè)和貨車(chē)運(yùn)輸業(yè)存在的壟斷行為,導(dǎo)致出口進(jìn)一步受阻。

????希臘是歐元區(qū)成員國(guó),無(wú)法通過(guò)本幣貶值來(lái)恢復(fù)競(jìng)爭(zhēng)力,提振出口。為重現(xiàn)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng),希臘需要痛下決心,放開(kāi)市場(chǎng),大幅下調(diào)工資,同時(shí)提高生產(chǎn)率。

????這項(xiàng)艱巨的任務(wù)可能會(huì)產(chǎn)生不可預(yù)知的政治后果。不過(guò),過(guò)去幾個(gè)月里希臘已經(jīng)批準(zhǔn)或承諾即將批準(zhǔn)的改革措施數(shù)量之多、涉及范圍之廣,確實(shí)讓人印象深刻。

????下面讓我們來(lái)看看可能徹底改變希臘經(jīng)濟(jì)的五項(xiàng)改革:

游輪業(yè)

????希臘如珍珠般散落的大小島嶼以及眾多古代遺跡使旅游業(yè)成為了這個(gè)國(guó)家的第一大產(chǎn)業(yè),占到GDP的15%。希臘應(yīng)該是全球豪華郵輪最熱門(mén)的目的地之一。但希臘的相關(guān)法律限制重重,導(dǎo)致Carnival、Princess等外國(guó)游輪公司長(zhǎng)期以來(lái)對(duì)希臘望而卻步。

????幾十年來(lái),希臘法律規(guī)定所有外國(guó)游輪運(yùn)營(yíng)商都必須要在船員中招聘很高比例的希臘海員,才能將希臘港口設(shè)為其航線的起點(diǎn)或終點(diǎn)。這個(gè)條款同樣也適用于法國(guó)、西班牙和其他歐盟成員國(guó)的游輪運(yùn)營(yíng)商,因此,歐盟此前居然沒(méi)有對(duì)這個(gè)高度違反競(jìng)爭(zhēng)精神的規(guī)定發(fā)難,實(shí)在非同尋常。由于這個(gè)原因,全球大批游輪航班公司紛紛將土耳其或以色列作為母港。游客們飛至伊斯坦布爾或海法,而不是雅典,給當(dāng)?shù)氐木频旰土闶蹣I(yè)帶來(lái)了滾滾財(cái)源。

????2010年,根據(jù)三方小組的要求,希臘政府曾經(jīng)通過(guò)了一項(xiàng)新的法律,承諾改革,但最終并未付諸實(shí)施。改革方案最終取消了對(duì)歐洲游輪運(yùn)營(yíng)商的招聘希臘海員要求,但對(duì)美國(guó)、加拿大及所有其他非歐盟公司加征高額稅款(稅款納入海員退休基金),同時(shí)要求這些公司簽署一份為期三年的合同,承諾到訪希臘港口。

????The searing images from Athens -- the streets choked with rioters, stately buildings and Starbucks' ablaze -- are masking a drive to liberate markets that's unlike anything any nation has attempted to do in decades. The platform is being pushed hard by the new Papademos administration, under intense pressure from the "troika," the IMF, EU and European Central Bank. Greece will need to rapidly enact the historic list of reforms to obtain the latest grant of $170 billion from the troika, and avoid a disastrous default when its next wave of bonds come due in mid-March.

????These reforms aren't just necessary to prevent bankruptcy. They're absolutely essential if Greece is to once again grow and prosper, conditions that are impossible with its current inflated level of wages and highly restricted, cartelized, uncompetitive markets.

????Greece's principal problem is that it's been depending for years on selling more and more home-grown goods and services that don't face international competition -- houses, haircuts, insurance policies -- to its own people. That model appeared to work when Greeks experienced a consumer credit boom from 2001 to 2008. But the explosion in domestic demand meant that wages soared, making Greece's exports too pricey on international markets. At the same time, its domestically produced appliances and electronics couldn't compete with cheaper imports from Germany or the Netherlands. Greece also did nothing to overhaul the monopolistic practices in tourism and trucking that further curbed exports.

????As a member of the eurozone, Greece can't devalue its currency to restore its competitiveness and boost exports. To grow again, Greece needs to both lower wages dramatically and enhance productivity by de-regulating markets at a wrenching pace.

????It's a grinding, politically treacherous task. Still, the number and scope of reforms that Greece has either passed, or promises to pass, in the last few months is indeed impressive.

????Let's examine five new measures that would totally transform the Greek economy.

The cruise industry

????Its island jewels and wonders from antiquity make tourism Greece's number one industry, accounting for 15% of GDP. Greece should be one of the world's foremost destinations for cruise ships. But highly restrictive laws have long discouraged foreign tour operators such as Carnival and Princess from visiting Greece.

????For decades, the law required that all foreign operators needed to hire a high percentage of Greek sailors on their crews in order to start or end a trip at a Greek port. It's remarkable that the EU didn't attack this highly anti-competitive provision, since it also applied to French, Spanish and all other players in the European Community. As a result, the world's cruise lines used Turkey or Israel as home ports. Tourists flew to Istanbul or Haifa instead of Athens, and rewarded their hotels and vendors.

????In 2010, under orders from the troika, the Greek government enacted a new law that promised reform, but failed to deliver in practice. The measure finally lifted the requirement for hiring Greek sailors for EU carriers, but imposed a stiff tax on U.S., Canadian and all other non-EU companies to benefit the sailors' retirement fund. It also required cruise lines to sign a three-year contract guaranteeing visits to Greek ports.

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