????火爆的中國樓市及其對全球經(jīng)濟的影響一直受到投資者的廣泛關(guān)注，而且這種關(guān)注在情理之中。

????1月份，巴克萊（Barclays）發(fā)布了最新的摩天大樓指數(shù)（Skyscraper Index）報告，解析過去140年來摩天大樓的興建與經(jīng)濟泡沫破裂之間的關(guān)聯(lián)。這種關(guān)聯(lián)可能純屬巧合，但指數(shù)顯示，如今的東亞巨人——中國是全球“最大的泡沫制造國”，并正在走向泡沫破裂。中國目前已經(jīng)擁有全球現(xiàn)有摩天大樓（即高度超過240米的高樓）的一半以上，未來幾年還將新建更多摩天大樓。

????但是，別對這個指數(shù)過度解讀。沒錯，正如巴克萊所指，美國大蕭條（the Great Depression）的時間與曼哈頓地區(qū)三幢地標性摩天大樓的建造時間一致：華爾街40號大廈（40 Wall Street，現(xiàn)名為川普大廈——譯注）于1929年完工，克萊斯勒大廈（Chrysler Building）于1930年建成，帝國大廈（Empire State Building）于1931年落成。

????毫無疑問，中國房價飛漲，已經(jīng)超出了國內(nèi)中產(chǎn)階層的負擔能力。而且，有理由相信，在中國經(jīng)濟將面臨嚴峻挑戰(zhàn)的2012年，房價肯定會下跌，但樓市絕不會崩盤。原因如下：

中國是儲蓄大國

????導致美國樓市崩潰的部分原因是零首付。雖然將美國樓市與中國樓市相提并論有些牽強，但值得指出的是，中國家庭的負債比率遠低于美國。

????眾所周知，中國人熱衷存錢，對負債較為敏感，部分原因是由于中國沒有西方國家那樣健全的教育和醫(yī)療保障體系。

????此外，試圖遏制房價快速上漲勢頭的中國政府已經(jīng)直接對購房者（和炒房者）設置了限貸措施。中國政府規(guī)定，第一套房最低首付三成，第二套房最低首付六成。

????2010年，中國住宅銷售總額4.4萬億元人民幣（約6,970億美元）。但據(jù)摩根大通（JP Morgan）2011年11月發(fā)布的中國住宅市場研究報告稱，按揭貸款余額遠低于這一水平，僅為1.4萬億人民幣（約2,220億美元）。

????“因此，按揭貸款違約的可能性相當?shù)停狈治鰩焸儽硎荆⒎Q，即便假設房價狂跌30%，按揭貸款的質(zhì)量“依然可靠”。

太多需求仍未得到滿足

????西方國家擁有大量投資渠道來吸納投資者的資金，相比之下，大多數(shù)中國人認為相對安全的投資品種只有房地產(chǎn)等少數(shù)幾個選擇。總部位于上海的中國市場研究集團（China Market Research Group）董事總經(jīng)理雷小山表示，隨著中國居民的收入增加以及越來越多的農(nóng)村人口進入城市（1月份，中國城鎮(zhèn)人口數(shù)量在中國歷史上首次超過農(nóng)村），住房需求預計將繼續(xù)保持強勁。

????China's hot property market and its implications on the global economy has been on the minds of many investors, and for good reason.

????In January, Barclays published its latest Skyscraper Index report, which tracks links between the rise in construction of tall buildings and economic busts over the past 140 years. This could be purely coincidental, but the index suggests that the East Asian giant is the world's "biggest bubble builder," and is on its way to an economic bust. China already has half of the world's existing skyscrapers (or buildings higher than 240 meters). And it plans to add more over the next several years.

????However, let's not read into this too much. It's true, as Barclays notes, that the Great Depression coincided with the construction of three landmark skyscrapers across Manhattan: 40 Wall Street completed in 1929, followed by the Chrysler Building in 1930, and the Empire State Building in 1931.

????No doubt, China's property prices have risen rapidly beyond the reach of much of the country's middle class. And there's reason to believe prices will certainly slide during what's expected to be a rocky economic year, but prices won't crash. Here's why:

China's nation of savers

????It was the no-money-down mentality that partly brought down America's housing market. While it would be a stretch to compare the U.S. market to China's, it's worth noting that our neighbors to the East are nowhere near as leveraged.

????China is known as a nation of savers, and consumers are relatively debt-wary, in part because the country doesn't have the kind of educational and health care safety nets that its Western neighbors enjoy.

????What's more, Chinese officials trying to clamp down on rapidly rising prices have directly placed limits on how much homebuyers (and speculators) can borrow. For primary-home buyers, the government has set a minimum down payment of 30% of the home's total sale price while buyers of second homes must put down at least 60%.

????In 2010, a total of 4.4 trillion renminbi (or about $697 billion) of residential buildings were sold in China. However, mortgage loans outstanding were far less, at 1.4 trillion renminbi (or $222 billion), according to a JP Morgan November 2011 report on China's housing market.

????"As a result, the probability of mortgage default is quite low," analysts say, adding that the quality of mortgage loans will "remain solid" even under the hypothetical scenario that home prices drop by 30%.

There's plenty of pent-up demand

????While the Western world has plenty of available options for investors to park their money, housing is considered one of the few relatively safe investments to most Chinese. As incomes rise and as more of the country's population is expected to move into urban areas (in January, China's urban population surpassed that of its rural areas for the first time in the country's history), demand for housing is expected to remain robust, says Shaun Rein, managing director of China Market Research Group, a Shanghai-based market research firm.