????如果一家公司長時間陷入被掛牌出售的處境，那么關于其命運的各種傳言最終就會卷土重來。2008年，微軟向雅虎“拋出繡球”，當時雅虎（Yahoo）聯合創始人楊致遠堅決表示，這家網絡巨頭是非賣品。之后，谷歌（Google）也參與到了收購競標中。

????時間來到2011年，楊致遠依然對收購傳聞的報道輕描淡寫。而潛在收購方中，依然有微軟（Microsoft）的身影，不過據報道，微軟此次將與其他投資方聯合出資競購。很快，第二天便有報道稱谷歌也有意出資私人投資機構收購雅虎。

????谷歌參與此項收購有可能以失敗收場，個中原因可能多種多樣。首先，《華爾街日報》（Wall Street Journal）的報道中，只有單一的消息源透露了谷歌參與競購的可能性，而且這位身份不明的“消息人士”還表示“谷歌本身或許不會參與對雅虎公司的收購”。同時谷歌還存在反壟斷的顧慮：2008年，美國司法部（Department of Justice）便否決了谷歌與雅虎的搜索業務合作計劃。此次，不論谷歌采取哪種方式參與競購，肯定都會引起政府的密切關注。此外，谷歌還必須考慮交易的戰略意義——也有可能正是因為這筆交易缺乏戰略價值。谷歌未來的發展重點將集中在社交與手機業務——而雅虎在這兩個方面均無優勢可言。

????盡管如此，這并不意味著谷歌搭救雅虎就是吃力不討好。考慮到以下六種可能的情況，收購雅虎對谷歌來說或許不失為一樁美事：

????谷歌此舉可以為其他公司的收購策略制造麻煩。最常見的說法是，谷歌是想抬高微軟或其他收購方的出價。而谷歌只需讓所謂的知情人士給媒體打個電話便能達到目的。周一，谷歌參與競購的消息傳出后不久，雅虎公司股票便上漲了4%。不過，此舉的風險在于，雅虎股價的小幅上漲不可能持久。換言之，這則報道最多只能延緩微軟方面的交易進度。所以，谷歌最有可能的做法是，加入雅虎收購暗戰，讓微軟仔細掂量，小心行事。甚至有可能在微軟猶豫不決之際，直接促使其打消念頭。而且，這樣一來，也可以打消規模更小的第三方參與競購的念頭。

????谷歌希望擴大顯示廣告業務的影響力。雅虎的顯示廣告業務一直萎靡不振，而谷歌的此項業務卻在不斷增長，平均每年為谷歌帶來25億美元的收入。不過，雅虎的優勢在于，它與最大的網絡廣告商以及流行網站都保持著密切關系。注資雅虎將使谷歌打開通往雅虎顯示廣告客戶的大門，進而加快業務增長速度。當然，該舉措必然會引發反壟斷問題。

????雅虎可以為Google +帶來更多用戶。目前，對于大多數人而言，Facebook依然是首選的在線社交網站。雖然僅僅幾個月時間，Google+的用戶便達到4,000萬，但這一數字僅為Facebook活躍用戶（8億）的5%。谷歌需要獲得更多活躍賬戶，而雅虎恰恰擁有這方面的資源。而且，在社交網絡基礎設施方面，雅虎的表現遠遠落后于谷歌。由于社交網絡依賴的是大量用戶，因此，將雅虎的會員納入到Google +的體系中，將使谷歌成為Facebook的強勁對手。

????谷歌希望深入了解雅虎。若投資者與一家公司正式商討收購案，他們通常會要求該公司提供有關財務與績效指標的數據。私募基金投資機構財力有限，如果谷歌為它們提供資金，即便最終談判失敗，谷歌依然可以得到這些數據。雖然雅虎本身的數據可能對谷歌的意義不大，但雅虎手頭依然掌握著大量對谷歌非常有價值的其他數據，例如：雅虎與微軟的搜索合作進展如何？雅虎顯示廣告業務有哪些優勢，又有哪些劣勢？雅虎如何看待國際市場，尤其是亞洲市場？此外，如果微軟也參與競購，谷歌也可能獲得微軟這方面的數據。既然如此，谷歌何樂而不為呢？

????谷歌可借助雅虎回歸中國。谷歌的中國業務可謂命運多舛，這段坎坷的歷程在去年最終公司決定關閉其中國業務是達到了頂點。而雅虎的優勢之一就是其在中國的資產，包括公司持有阿里巴巴（Alibaba）40%的股份。

????最接近事實的推測也許是這樣的：如果谷歌擁有了雅虎的股份，那它就間接持有了中國互聯網巨頭阿里巴巴的股份。這樣一來，谷歌也就有機會重返不斷壯大的中國市場。而且，它還可以斷絕阿里巴巴收購雅虎的可能性。因為一旦馬云入主雅虎，他勢必會從在線支付到搜索和顯示廣告等各個方面對谷歌造成嚴重威脅。這樣的理由是否有點牽強？當然，但不知是否巧合，谷歌周一宣布，中國已經換發了其在該國的經營許可證。谷歌中國前負責人也曾在在線問答網站Quora中表示，阿里巴巴和馬云并不適合管理雅虎。弦外之音不言而喻：“但是谷歌適合。”

????投資雅虎可以轉移反壟斷監管部門的注意力。谷歌或許會有興趣幫助雅虎重新崛起，這樣就不會讓自己背上“搜索壟斷”的名聲。沒有了雅虎，谷歌將會在搜索和顯示廣告這兩個領域一家獨大，自然也就成為反壟斷監管機構密切關注的目標。這種關注給谷歌帶來的傷害，遠遠大于雅虎復興的影響。

????類似的先例早在1997年便已上演。當時，微軟便曾向困難重重的蘋果公司（Apple）注資1.5億美元。表面上來看，這份投資是想鼓勵蘋果在Mac電腦上安裝Office軟件和IE，但同時也使得反壟斷機構陷入被動。（題外話：微軟后來拋售了手中的蘋果股份，否則，這些股份的價值將高達數十億美元。）

????雅虎的未來依然被重重迷霧所籠罩，目前看來，任何事情都可能發生。例如，與美國在線（AOL）合并，被馬云收購，被微軟或谷歌支持的私人投資公司全盤收購等等。不過，可以肯定的是，盡管楊致遠煞費苦心，但雅虎保持獨立公司地位的希望是越來越渺茫了。

????譯者：阿龍/汪皓

????If a company stays on the auction block long enough, rumors about its fate will eventually begin to repeat themselves. In 2008, while Yahoo co-founder Jerry Yang insisted the web giant wasn't for sale, Microsoft emerged as a suitor. Then Google got involved.

????Fast forward to 2011 and here's Jerry Yang again downplaying reports of a Yahoo (YHOO) acquisition. Among the suitors is, again, Microsoft (MSFT), only this time it's reportedly bankrolling a deal by joint buyers. And as the day follows the dawn, reports followed quickly that Google (GOOG) is also interested in financing private investors looking to buy Yahoo.

????There are plenty of reasons a Google-backed deal would not pan out. First, the Wall Street Journal story reporting the possibility was based on a single source -- that elusive "person familiar with the matter" -- who said that "Google may end up not pursuing a bid." Then there are the antitrust concerns: the Department of Justice shot down the 2008 search partnership Google wanted to arrange with Yahoo. The government would surely take a close look at any moves backed by Google. And then there are the strategic reasons -- or lack of them. Much of Google's future is focused on social and mobile -- and Yahoo is weaker in both.

????Still, that doesn't mean there's no virtue for Google in saving Yahoo. Here are six possible scenarios in which it might actually be a good idea:

????Google is throwing sand in the gears of another deal. The most cited theory is that Google wants to drive up the price for Microsoft or another bidder. A simple phone call by someone familiar with the matter to a reporter is all it would take. Yahoo's stock rose 4% Monday following the report. The risk in this move is that this slight rise in Yahoo's share price won't last long. In other words, this report would at best delay a Microsoft-backed deal. Much more likely is that Google would try to get into the Yahoo-takeover mix to give Microsoft second thoughts -- or even drive it away if it's on the fence. It could also deter smaller third parties from pursuing their own bid at all.

????Google wants a bigger presence in display ads. Revenue from display ads are disappointing at Yahoo but they're growing at Google, which is making $2.5 billion a year from them. Yahoo, however, has deep relationships with the web's biggest advertisers as well as many popular sites. If putting Google's money into Yahoo could open up access to Yahoo's display customers, Google could see more display growth. Such a move would surely set off antitrust alarms.

????Yahoo could bring more users to Google+. For most people, Facebook is still the go-to place to socialize with friends online. Google+ has signed up 40 million users in a few months, but that's only 5% of Facebook's 800 million active users. What Google needs is access to more active accounts -- and Yahoo still has a lot of them. Yahoo, meanwhile, is even further behind Google when it comes to having a social-networking infrastructure. Since social networks rely on big numbers of users, corralling Yahoo members into Google+ would help Google build a strong rival to Facebook.

????Google wants a closer look at Yahoo. When investors enter serious takeover talks with a company, they often demand a look at its financials and performance metrics. By backing some private equity investors who might otherwise have trouble raising money, Google can have access to all that data, even if the talks eventually fall through. There may not be much of Yahoo's data that is crucial for Google to know, but there's plenty that could be helpful: How is Yahoo's search partnership with Microsoft really faring? Where is Yahoo's display business strong, and where is it weak? What insights does Yahoo have in international markets, particularly Asia? What's more, if Microsoft is involved in a takeover bid, it may have access to this same data. So why shouldn't Google have access too?

????Yahoo offers Google a backdoor to China. Google's history in China is a rocky one, culminating in the company's decision to shut down its China operations last year. But one of Yahoo's strengths is its assets in China, including its 40% stake in Alibaba.

????The truly speculative will consider this: If Google owned a stake in Yahoo, it would indirectly own a stake in Alibaba, one of China's Internet giants. That could offer a way back into a growing market. It could also derail any chance that Alibaba would buy Yahoo. If Jack Ma controlled Yahoo, he could undercut Google on everything from online payment fees to search and display ad rates. Far-fetched? Sure, but coincidentally or not, Google said Monday that China renewed its operating license in the country. And the former head of Google China said on Quora that Alibaba and Ma aren't suited to manage Yahoo. It's hard not to read that and think, "but Google is."

????Investing in Yahoo will keep antitrust regulators off Google's back. Google may be interested in helping Yahoo to thrive to lessen its chance of becoming a search monopoly. Without Yahoo around, Google could become so powerful in search and display ads that antitrust regulators end up doing more harm than a revitalized Yahoo ever could.

????There is a precedent for such a move. In 1997, Microsoft invested $150 million in a struggling Apple (AAPL). Ostensibly, the investment was to encourage Apple to install Office and Internet Explorer onto Mac computers, but it also served to keep antitrust regulators at bay. (A side note: Microsoft later sold off its Apple shares, which would be worth several billion dollars today).

????Yahoo's future is unpredictable, so much so it seems like any outcome is possible at this point: A merger with AOL (AOL), a takeover by Jack Ma, a buyout by private equity firms financed in part by Microsoft, or Google, or someone else. But one thing that is growing less likely is the scenario that Jerry Yang wants -- an independent Yahoo.