????根據(jù)歐元區(qū)銀行監(jiān)察機(jī)構(gòu)公布的結(jié)果顯示，抗壓測試不及格的銀行，也就是所謂的核心資金低于5%的銀行，其中5家來自于西班牙，兩家來自于希臘，一家來自于奧地利。即使有些銀行過關(guān)了，但由于他們的核心資本只有5%-6%，因此也是岌岌可危。這些銀行中的近半數(shù)，也就是7家，都來自于西班牙。

????上周五歐洲銀行管理局（European Banking Authority）公布了這一最近涉及德國、西班牙、愛爾蘭等歐洲國家共計(jì)90多家金融機(jī)構(gòu)的抗壓測試結(jié)果。決策者們希望藉此打消公眾對于銀行實(shí)力的疑慮。過去的兩年當(dāng)中，歐洲經(jīng)濟(jì)危機(jī)使得經(jīng)濟(jì)總產(chǎn)值下滑了四個(gè)百分點(diǎn)。在這期間，歐洲銀行由于先天性的資金不足，大多是靠從市場借貸過日子。

????但是抗壓測試沒有起到立竿見影的減壓效果。歐洲銀行股價(jià)在美國股市略有下滑。歐洲實(shí)力較弱的經(jīng)濟(jì)體，例如希臘、葡萄牙、愛爾蘭和西班牙的債務(wù)問題也是略呈擴(kuò)張態(tài)勢，一切都表明壓力依然存在。

????Of the failing banks -- those whose so-called core capital fell below 5% -- five are from Spain, two from Greece* and one from Austria, according to results released by euro area banking watchdogs. Of those that passed but could stand to bulk up, with core capital of 5%-6%, nearly half -- seven -- are from Spain.

????Friday's announcement from the European Banking Authority concludes the latest round of stress tests for 90 big institutions from Germany to Spain to Ireland. Policymakers are hoping to dispel worries about the capacity of Europe's banks, which historically carry less capital and rely more on money borrowed in the markets, to survive a recession that slashes economic output by 4% over two years.

????But any relief wasn't immedately visible. European bank stocks traded modestly lower in the United States, and the spreads on the debt of weaker countries such as Greece, Portugal, Ireland and Spain widened modestly, indicating sustained stress.

????歐洲經(jīng)濟(jì)的復(fù)蘇急需一個(gè)資本高度充足的銀行系統(tǒng)。在最近發(fā)表的一篇文章中，經(jīng)濟(jì)合作發(fā)展組織（Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development）估計(jì)銀行在歐洲的授信是其總量的3/4——這個(gè)數(shù)字是美國的3倍，而且主要是政府抵押。

????輿論普遍認(rèn)為，實(shí)力強(qiáng)勁的大型上市銀行，例如德國德意志銀行（Deutsche Bank，DB），英國巴克萊銀行（Barclays，BCS）和西班牙國際銀行（Banco Santander，STD）將輕松過關(guān)。

????上周，歐盟首腦們表示將為無法自行融資的銀行提供援助，這一舉措借鑒了美國2009年春天的做法。歐洲銀行管理局表示，有十幾家銀行之所以能通過測試是因?yàn)樗麄円言诮衲暝缧r(shí)候完成了融資。

????目前公眾的憂慮主要集中在德國特別是西班牙的區(qū)域性銀行，這些銀行在資金方面捉襟見肘，而且問題貸款多為政治性貸款而非商業(yè)貸款。測試合格的銀行中，愛爾蘭的銀行曾于過去三年獲得過巨大的援助貸款，這也使得愛爾蘭對歐洲中央銀行（the European Central Bank）和國際貨幣基金組織（International Monetary Fund）養(yǎng)成了衣來伸手的習(xí)慣。

????在此次壓力測試之前，去年的一輪壓力測試遭到市場唾棄，因?yàn)闇y試最終發(fā)現(xiàn)只有七家銀行機(jī)構(gòu)（其中以小銀行居多）資金短缺。本月，穆迪評級（Moody’s）認(rèn)為26家銀行仍“處于高風(fēng)險(xiǎn)狀態(tài)，需要大量的外援”。

????因此，本輪測試發(fā)現(xiàn)24家銀行缺錢，標(biāo)準(zhǔn)顯然更嚴(yán)格，因此也更可信。即便如此，很多人仍然質(zhì)疑測試的效果。眼下購買高赤字、高債務(wù)和經(jīng)濟(jì)低迷的國家的債券存在很大的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)，投資者要求得到更多的補(bǔ)償。

????各國的銀行系統(tǒng)最終還是以國家作為后盾，因此，一旦連意大利這樣規(guī)模的經(jīng)濟(jì)實(shí)體（歐元區(qū)第三大經(jīng)濟(jì)實(shí)體）的發(fā)展前景也出現(xiàn)問題，銀行系統(tǒng)資金充足這樣簡單的論斷顯然無法平息投資者的恐慌。

????最近抗壓測試的設(shè)計(jì)之所以遭到質(zhì)疑的原因是，該測試并未檢驗(yàn)主權(quán)債務(wù)人，例如希臘，發(fā)生違約后銀行將受到的沖擊。然而，這正是過去18個(gè)月以來投資者之所以憂心忡忡的焦點(diǎn)所在，因此這也算得上是本輪測試的小疏忽。

????歐洲銀行管理局表示將測試主權(quán)債券價(jià)格下跌后所帶來的影響。

????歐洲管理局測試官員還說，“測試還將包括特定的歐洲主權(quán)債務(wù)抗壓測試。它將以2010年低迷的價(jià)格水平為基礎(chǔ)，進(jìn)一步評估一些歐盟國債券價(jià)格下跌后所帶來的影響”

????更讓人疑惑的是，西班牙中央銀行表示，由于一般貸款損失準(zhǔn)備以及各家銀行可轉(zhuǎn)債（還沒有轉(zhuǎn)換成股票）的發(fā)行，該國銀行無需進(jìn)行額外融資。按照歐洲各國的監(jiān)管安排，西班牙央行的職責(zé)是確保其銀行資金充足。

????這與歐洲銀行管理局的要求背道而馳。歐洲銀行管理局曾要求各國管理者敦促這些“核心資本接近5%和因國債明顯透支的問題銀行采取具體措施進(jìn)一步融資 ”。這一點(diǎn)似乎適用于很大一部分西班牙銀行，但是西班牙銀行（Bank of Spain）似乎并不買賬。

????A well capitalized banking system is crucial for a European economic recovery. A recent paper by the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development estimated that banks provide three-quarters of credit extension in Europe – three times as much as in the United States, with its government-backed mortgages.

????The biggest, publicly listed banks such as Deutsche Bank (DB) of Germany, Barclays (BCS) of the U.K. and Banco Santander (STD) of Spain have been widely seen as sufficiently strong to pass the test.

????Leaders of the European Union said this week they will stand behind those banks that aren't able to raise capital privately, in a replay of the exercise the United States ran in the spring of 2009. The EBA said a dozen more banks would have failed the test if they hadn't raised capital early this year.

????Concern has centered on the regional banks in Germany and especially Spain, where the cajas are widely viewed as undercapitalized and chock full of questionable loans made for political rather than economic reasons. Among those passing were the Irish banks whose massive bailout over the past three years has left the Irish state addicted to support from the European Central Bank and International Monetary Fund.

????The latest tests come after a round last year was hooted down in the market after only seven, mostly smaller institutions were found wanting. Moody's said this month it viewed 26 banks as bearing a "heightened risk of needing extraordinary external support."

????So the finding that 24 institutions need more money is definitely tougher and therefore more credible. Even so, many have questioned the utility of the tests at a time when investors are demanding much more compensation for the risk of buying bonds issued with large deficits, heavy debt loads or shrinking economies.

????。

????Every country's banking system is ultimately backed by its national government, and when there are questions about the viability of economies as large as Italy (the euro area's third-biggest), the mere observation that the banks have plentiful capital is not apt to ease investor fears.

????The design of the latest stress tests drew further eye-rolling because they fail to assess what would happen to banks if a sovereign bond issuer such as Greece defaults. Since that is the very scenario investors have spent the past 18 months fretting over, it seems like a bit of an oversight.

????But the EBA says it will test instead what will happen if the value of sovereign bonds are reduced.

????"The adverse scenario also includes a specific sovereign stress in the EU leading to further falls in the price of some EU bonds from the already stressed levels seen at end 2010," an EBA stress test explainer notes.

????Further adding to the confusion, Spain's central bank -- which under the national regulatory arrangements in Europe is responsible for making sure its banks are adequately capitalized -- said its banks won't actually need to raise any more money, because of general loss provisions and their issuance of bonds that convert to stock in a failure.

????This despite the fact that the EBA says it has urged local regulators to urge banks with capital "above but close to 5%, and which have sizeable exposures to sovereigns under stress, to take specific steps to strengthen their capital position." That seems to apply to numerous Spanish lenders, but the Bank of Spain doesn't appear to agree.