花旗CEO潘偉迪罕見談論中國外匯管制
????這是比較罕見的:一家美國大銀行的現(xiàn)任首席執(zhí)行官——特別考慮到其曾敦促中國貫徹世貿協(xié)定,目前正努力推動公司在中國市場自由競爭——居然會毫無保留地談到中國的外匯管制和通脹問題。很少在公開場合談論此類跨國熱點問題的潘偉迪(Vikram Pandit)上周四在紐約的確這么做了。這位花旗集團(Citigroup)的首席執(zhí)行官是在華爾道夫酒店(Waldorf-Astoria)的一場午餐會上說這番話的,午餐會由關注中美關系發(fā)展的知名美籍華裔組織百人會(Committee of 100)舉辦。 ????在這場本來或許會談論中美關系重要性的平淡演講中(是的,潘偉迪,我們都知道),潘偉迪表示,上周初他在華盛頓參加了中美戰(zhàn)略與經濟對話,與美國國務卿希拉里?克林頓、財政部長蒂姆?蓋特納、商務部長駱家輝一起會見了中國副總理王岐山、國務委員戴秉國等高級官員以及知名的中國商界領袖。這次對話一開始還是討論中國外匯政策、人權紀錄等老問題,但最終中國首次同意允許美國商業(yè)銀行在華銷售共同基金以及承銷公司債。 ????潘偉迪在演講中沒有提到這些突破,而是對外匯問題舉起了大棒——當然很溫和,因為在中國花旗仍不能將零售網絡擴張至已獲批的13個城市以外,而且也不能提供完整的系列銀行服務。目前,花旗在華有5,000名雇員;花旗的亞洲管理人士已表示,希望三年內將雇員數(shù)擴大至12,000人,分支機構超過100個。 ????“實現(xiàn)人民幣可自由兌換,對解決流動性問題和通脹將大有幫助,”潘偉迪表示,但承認這“也可能惡化失業(yè)率,放緩經濟增速。” ????潘偉迪還指出了中國外匯管制的負面影響,表示限制資本跨境流動阻礙了中國龐大的私人儲蓄走出國門,在境外尋找更高效的投資產品和相關機會。“如今,只有中國政府能在國際市場投資。因此,我們對正在進行的投資的效率無法有信心,”潘偉迪告訴聽眾,“更重要的是,由于在國內市場有太多錢追逐太少的投資機會,資產價格通脹不可避免。所有這些錢都必須投到其他地方。”4月份,中國消費者價格指數(shù)同比增長超過5%,中國官員再次承認中國大城市房價存在泡沫。 ????潘偉迪呼吁美國加大對華出口,并呼吁儲蓄率高達53%的中國消費者增加消費。“迄今為止,全球主要經濟體中最不發(fā)達的消費市場就是中國,”他說。 ????不過,潘偉迪對中美關系仍持樂觀態(tài)度。“倒退至貿易戰(zhàn)——或更糟的狀況那是歷史模式,”他說,“但我認為現(xiàn)在不會出現(xiàn)這種情況,真的不會。” ????中國貿易戰(zhàn)、匯率操縱和資產價格通脹都是潘偉迪日常演講中不會出現(xiàn)的詞。比如,在瑞士達沃斯世界經濟論壇上,潘偉迪談論的是增加向貧困人群提供金融服務。在經濟危機期間,他的言論主要圍繞金融管制和改革。 ????那么,這意味著出生于印度的潘偉迪要在全球舞臺上打造一個全新的自我形象?也許。但更大的可能是,這說明在美國房地產抵押貸款危機期間彌漫在金融業(yè)界的重重顧慮終已消散,現(xiàn)在是時候關注世界其他地區(qū)了。敬請期待吧。 |
????It's rare that a sitting CEO of a top U.S. bank -- particularly one pushing China to abide by its WTO agreements while angling to let his firm compete freely in the Chinese market -- will speak out on China's currency controls and troubles with inflation. But Vikram Pandit, who rarely discusses such cross-border, hot-button issues in public, did just that on Thursday in New York. The CEO of Citigroup (C) was addressing a lunch crowd at a conference organized by the Committee of 100, a prominent group of Chinese Americans focused on U.S.-China relations, at the Waldorf-Astoria Hotel. ????During what otherwise might have been a tame speech about the importance of U.S.-China relations (yeah, Vikram, we know), Pandit said that he had been in Washington earlier this week taking part in the U.S.-Strategic and Economic Dialog with Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, Treasury Secretary Tim Geithner, and Secretary of Commerce Gary Locke, and meeting senior Chinese officials, including Vice Premier Wang Qishan and State Councilor Dai Bingguo, and a number of prominent Chinese business leaders. The confab had started out with the same old clashes over China's currency policies and human rights record, though it ended with a Chinese agreement to allow U.S. banks to sell mutual funds and underwrite corporate bonds in China for the first time. ????Pandit didn't mention those breakthroughs, but he did pick up the cudgel to hammer the currency issue -- rather gently, of course, as Citi is still can't expand its retail branches in China beyond the 13 cities where it is allowed and isn't permitted to offer its full range of banking services. The company currently employs 5,000 people in China; Citi execs in Asia have said they would like to have 12,000 employees, and more than 100 branches, within three years. ????"Making the currency convertible would go a long way toward solving the liquidity problem and addressing inflation," Pandit asserted, but conceded that "it might also exacerbate unemployment and slow growth." ????Pandit also noted the negative impact of China's currency controls, saying that the constraints on cross-border capital flows hinders the nation's high level of private savings from flowing out of the country to find productive investments and opportunities abroad. "Today, only the government lends to international markets. As a result, we can't be confident that what investment that does take place is happening efficiently," Pandit told the crowd. "More importantly, as too much money chases too few opportunities in the domestic market, asset price inflation is inevitable. All that money has to be invested somewhere." In April, consumer prices in China rose more than 5%, and Chinese officials have repeatedly acknowledged a housing bubble in major cities. ????Pandit called for the U.S. to increase exports to China, and for Chinese consumers, who have an extraordinarily high savings rate of 53%, to pick up their spending. "By far, the most underdeveloped consumer market among the world's major economies is China's," he said. ????Still, Pandit remained optimistic about China-U.S. relations. "Devolution into trade wars -- or worse -- would fit the template of history," he said. "But I don't see that happening here, I really don't." ????Trade wars, currency manipulation and asset price inflation in China are part of a vocabulary that departs from Pandit's usual scripts. At the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland, for example, Pandit spoke about expanding financial services to the poor. During the economic crisis, most of his public comments centered around financial regulation and reform. ????So does this signal a new coming-out on the global stage for the Indian-born Pandit? Perhaps. But it might be more a sign that the angst that had seized the financial sector during the mortgage meltdown is finally over, and that it's now time to focus on the rest of the world. Let's hope. |