????汽車業(yè)是由無數(shù)零件供應(yīng)商、裝配工廠、物流網(wǎng)絡(luò)以及經(jīng)銷商組成的一個龐大的、有時甚至是混亂的行業(yè)。在面臨自然災(zāi)害或其它災(zāi)難時，這個行業(yè)可能顯得尤為脆弱。

????汽車廠商都深知洪水、暴雪、泥石流、森林大火等災(zāi)害會給汽車生產(chǎn)帶來哪些影響。許多經(jīng)銷商都有過汽車存貨被洪水和怒潮吞沒，或是被冰雹損壞的經(jīng)歷。

????海上也可能發(fā)生災(zāi)害。2002年，一艘載有2862輛汽車的挪威貨船途經(jīng)英吉利海峽時，在濃霧中與一艘貨柜船相撞，繼而沉沒。

????不過與地震后的日本相比，這些都微不足道了。上周的日本地震、地震引發(fā)的海嘯，再加上人們對震區(qū)核反應(yīng)堆熔毀的恐慌日益加深，為日本汽車業(yè)帶來了三重威脅。

????作為全球第三大汽車生產(chǎn)國（僅次于中國和美國），日本的汽車生產(chǎn)網(wǎng)絡(luò)高度發(fā)達，而且格外復(fù)雜。日本的高速公路和海港非常擁擠，這是日本的“先天不足”。此外日本汽車業(yè)中還有許多人為的復(fù)雜因素，例如許多日本廠商都在零部件運輸上采取了“零庫存”的即時交付制度。這些因素使得日本汽車業(yè)成為了一個極為精細、高度平衡的體系。

????如果正常運轉(zhuǎn)的話，這是個極為高效的系統(tǒng)。不過倘若系統(tǒng)中的某根鏈條出現(xiàn)了斷裂，就會影響到整個系統(tǒng)的運轉(zhuǎn)。裝配一輛汽車需要差不多10000個單獨的零件，一個都不能少。

如何能幫助日本？

????日本汽車業(yè)從未遭遇過這么大的破壞。除了地震和海嘯造成的損失之外，日本汽車業(yè)還需要面對一些次級影響，例如斷電、供應(yīng)短缺，以及高速公路、鐵路及海上事故等。此外還有一些第三級的影響。據(jù)報道，有些汽車廠家已經(jīng)暫時關(guān)閉，以便員工料理因地震而導(dǎo)致的個人事務(wù)。

????據(jù)預(yù)計，日本幾家最大的汽車廠商將會一直關(guān)閉到星期三。有些分析人士預(yù)測道，更進一步的破壞將持續(xù)數(shù)月之久。德意志銀行（Deutsche Bank）分析師科特?桑格指出：“盡管未來幾天里，我們可能看到日本汽車業(yè)恢復(fù)了一些產(chǎn)能，不過由于能源供應(yīng)和零部件供應(yīng)的限制，日本汽車業(yè)基本不可能在短期內(nèi)迅速恢復(fù)到正常的運行狀態(tài)。”

????這場災(zāi)難的影響之廣，令人驚訝。馬自達（Mazda）的總部位于廣島，遠離震區(qū)，因而外界本以為馬自達可以幸免于難。不過由于零部件短缺，馬自達還是在周一夜里和周二全天暫時停止了日本西部四個工廠的生產(chǎn)。

????此次日本地震對汽車業(yè)的影響甚至波及到了歐洲，這充分證明了日本汽車產(chǎn)業(yè)的全球跨度。雷諾汽車公司（Renault）在法國的經(jīng)營與其日本伙伴日產(chǎn)汽車公司（Nissan）有著千絲萬縷的聯(lián)系。戴姆勒（Daimler）的扶桑（Fuso）品牌也在日本經(jīng)營著兩家卡車工廠。大眾汽車公司（VW）還擁有鈴木汽車公司（Suzuki）19%的股權(quán)。

????在未來幾周里，美國的汽車消費者也會感受到日本地震所帶來的影響。據(jù)德意志銀行估算，在北美銷售的所有汽車中，約有12%源自日本。此外，許多在美國的日本廠商所生產(chǎn)的汽車里，也多多少少包含了某些在日本生產(chǎn)的部件。接下來的五個月正是美國車市銷售旺季，因此如果日本汽車業(yè)遭受的破壞延續(xù)下去，很可能導(dǎo)致車市上的某些產(chǎn)品出現(xiàn)短缺。

????例如日產(chǎn)汽車公司的所有英菲尼迪（Infiniti）轎車都是在日本生產(chǎn)的。日產(chǎn)公司表示，該公司有1300輛轎車在本州島東部的日立港被海嘯沖毀，海嘯還損毀了1000輛停放在一家服務(wù)中心里的日產(chǎn)轎車，使該公司的出口遭受了沉重打擊。這也將使日產(chǎn)公司難以補充美國地區(qū)的存貨，而目前在美國市場上，英菲尼迪汽車只剩一個月的庫存了。

????豐田公司（Toyota）在普銳斯（Prius）轎車上也遇到了同樣的問題。由于汽油價格上漲，普銳斯的銷量已經(jīng)出現(xiàn)了激增。不過普銳斯也是全部在日本生產(chǎn)的。一位美國經(jīng)銷商手上的普銳斯新車已經(jīng)全部賣光了，他對《紐約時報》表示，他甚至只得把用過的普銳斯轎車放在展廳里當(dāng)樣車。

????日本廠商一向以擅于適應(yīng)逆境、擅于在災(zāi)難中隨機應(yīng)變而聞名。最出名的一次是豐田公司的一家制動閥供應(yīng)商于1997年毀于一場大火，而豐田公司居然在五天內(nèi)就恢復(fù)了生產(chǎn)。因為有其他37家零部件供應(yīng)商聯(lián)合起來，提供了機床系統(tǒng)，并且建立了臨時裝配線，為豐田生產(chǎn)這一急需的零部件。

????這次災(zāi)難給日本汽車業(yè)帶來的破壞是多方面的，它將檢驗日本汽車業(yè)的智慧與創(chuàng)造力。

????譯者：樸成奎

????With its sprawling, sometimes tangled array of parts suppliers, assembly plants, logistics networks, and dealers, the auto industry is perhaps uniquely vulnerable to disasters, natural and otherwise.

????Manufacturers are all too familiar with interruptions to production from floods, blizzards, land slides, and forest fires. Dealers have seen their new car inventories wiped out by overflowing rivers, surging tides, and punishing hail storms.

????Catastrophes happen even at sea. A Norwegian carrier with 2,862 cars aboard sank in the English Channel in 2002 after colliding with a container ship in thick fog.

????But there has been nothing like the triple threat in Japan wrought by last week's earthquake and tidal wave, combined with growing worries of a nuclear reactor meltdown.

????As the world's third-largest producer of automobiles (after China and the U.S.), Japan's manufacturing network is highly developed and unusually complex. The natural constraints of Japan's crowded highways and seaports, combined with man-made complications like just-in-time parts delivery have led to the creation a finely-tuned, delicately-balanced system.

????Running smoothly, it is highly productive. But a single disruption anywhere along the line can tie up the whole system. Assembling a car requires some 10,000 individual pieces, and every single one of them is needed in the finished product.

How you can help Japan

????Japan has never seen a disruption like this. In addition to the direct damage caused by the earthquakes and tsunami, there are secondary effects -- coordinated power outages to deal with, supply shortages, interruption of highway, rail, and ship traffic -- and tertiary ripples. Some auto plants were reportedly closed so that employees could cope with personal issues stemming from disaster.

????Japan's largest auto producers are now expected to remain shut down through Wednesday, and some analysts foresee further disruptions lasting months. "While we could see some production capacity come back on line in the next few days, energy supply limitations and parts supply restrictions make a quick return to normal operations highly unlikely," says Kurt Sanger of Deutsche Bank.

????The disaster's impact has been surprisingly widespread. Mazda was thought to have been spared because it is headquartered in Hiroshima, far from most of the damage. But it suspended production at its four plants in western Japan Monday night and all day Tuesday because of parts shortages.

????Demonstrating the industry's global span, repercussions are being felt as far away as Europe. Renault's operations in France are intertwined with those of its Japanese partner Nissan. Daimler's Fuso operates 2 truck plants in Japan. VW owns a 19% stake in Suzuki.

????U.S. car buyers also will be feeling the effects of the disaster in coming weeks. Deutsche Bank estimates that approximately 12% of all vehicles sold in North America originate in Japan. Additionally, many vehicles produced in North America by Japanese automakers contain at least some content that is produced in Japan. The next five months are the seasonally strongest of the year for U.S. sales, so extended disruptions could cause shortages of some products.

????Nissan, for instance, which makes all of its Infiniti brand cars in Japan, said the tsunami destroyed 1,300 vehicles at the Port of Hitachi plus 1,000 more at a service center, impacting exports. That will make it difficult to replenish inventories in the U.S, where only a month's supply of some Infiniti models is on the ground in the U.S.

????Toyota (TM) faces a similar problem with the Prius, whose sales have spurted as gas prices have risen. The Prius is only manufactured in Japan. One U.S. dealer who is sold out of new cars told the New York Times he had resorted to displaying used models at his showroom.

????Japanese manufacturers are renowned for their ability to improvise and adapt in the face of the adversity. Toyota famously resumed production within five days after a fire destroyed a brake valve supplier in 1997. Thirty-seven other suppliers improvised tooling systems and set up makeshift assembly lines to make the needed part.

????The multi-faceted nature of the destruction from this disaster, however, will test all of their ingenuity and resourcefulness.