????我們最近一直在苦苦思索的一個問題是： “我們將去向何方？”——特別是涉及到前幾個月來媒體一直在報道的大宗商品漲價問題。

????就全球通脹趨勢而言，有一個令人矚目的例子可以說明劍已出鞘。 隨著“核心”消費價格指數（CPI）加速上漲，特別是在中國、印尼、泰國等一些亞洲國家，全球各家公司正利用最近強勁的全球增長趨勢和樂觀的增長預測，將價格上漲轉嫁到消費者身上。

????相對于我們的模型以及當前全球宏觀背景（通脹日益加速和利率上調），美國、中國、日本、印度和巴西等主要經濟體對于自身增長的一致預測都太高了。

????盡管“核心”CPI與“廣義”CPI兩者重要性的爭論已淪為老生常談，但這里令人吃驚的地方主要是，人們沒有充分認識到， 即便大宗商品價格從目前高位開始回落（即如果中東和北非地區的沖突今天停止，原油價格回落至80-85美元區間），全球通脹依然很有可能 將繼續加速，主要理由有二：

????1. 企業將把過于樂觀的全球增長預測作為正當理由，從而把上兩個季度的價格上漲轉嫁給終端消費者，試圖同時保護利潤率和盈利。

????2. 最近有這樣一種全球趨勢，即政府公職人員屈從于民粹主義壓力而增加補貼、轉移支付和薪資，這將繼續增加需求導致的通脹壓力，并在短期內加劇多種大宗商品目前的供需不平衡。長期來看，這種虛假的消費需求支持可能會造成額外的價格轉嫁給終端消費者，中期內可能會阻礙消費增長。

????由于我們都知道關于目前全球增長預期虛高的共識，所以我們就直接跳過，來說說第二點。關于近期增加補貼、轉移支付和薪資這種全球趨勢，一些具體例子包括：

????? 中國： 由于政府對經濟進行再平衡，以加大對國內消費的依賴程度，預計全國31個省都將連續第二年調高最低工資，其中廣東、北京和上海等主要省市的上調幅度最大。

????? 印尼： 該國原定于3月取消持續已久的燃料補貼，目前此計劃已經廢棄。 過去，取消此類補貼已引發多起抗議，并曾導致印尼政府下臺，例如20世紀90年代末蘇哈托政權的下臺。

????? 中東和北非： 說到抗議，約旦、阿爾及利亞、摩洛哥、也門、利比亞和或許最為重要的沙特阿拉伯已通過在國內實行大規模轉移支付，從而避開目前和今后的抗議者。 具體而言，沙特皇室上周剛剛宣布了一項高達370億美元的一攬子福利計劃，該計劃最終可能被證明是為預防國內社會動蕩所做出的徒勞努力。

????? 印度： 在該國的最新預算中（上周一發布），印度政府正試圖通過上調所得稅減免額度來提振收入。 此外，印度正在提高住房貸款補貼，并撥款1.44萬億盧比用于食品和燃料補貼。 預計今后數周將宣布其他補貼。

????? 泰國： 政府近期剛剛延長了一項為窮人提供免費用電和公共交通的計劃。

????? 巴西： 羅塞夫總統剛剛宣布，為巴西的家庭補助金轉移計劃增加13億美元資金，這將使更多家庭領到補助金。

????香港在這方面做出的妥協可能遠遠超過以上國家，由于這一趨勢涉及發展中國家和發達經濟體之間的比較，從而揭示出一個驚人的有趣之處。 繼香港特首曾蔭權（香港級別最高的官員）上周早些時候在一片公眾抗議+聲中遭襲之后，財政司司長曾俊華同意發放現金、退稅并對養老金賬戶注資，每一項均高達6,000港元。 而在上月，他已決定免除2個月的公屋租金 并提供電費補貼，同時坦言發放現金會帶來危險的通脹壓力。

????面對媒體，曾俊華這樣說道： “我們認為這是回應居民需求的最佳方式…”

????鑒于大多數人認為香港是一個相當發達的經濟體，看到香港特區政府向民粹主義屈服，發放額外資金 ，這很有意思。 這表明這一趨勢可能不再局限于諸如中東和北非地區、印度、中國等發展中國家和地區。

????總而言之，自去年10月份以來，我們始終在為全球滯脹而爭論不休。 現在由于石油交易價格高于每桶100美元，大家達成共識已經弄清了通脹組成，我們的任務就是弄清楚如何測定根據股票空頭來揭露悲觀增長因素的時間。 如果2008年可以作為前車之鑒，股票空頭們會又踢又叫，買入下跌時的每一次下探——假如我們正朝著那個方向前進的話；而時間和空間最終將證明一切。

????One question we've been wrestling with lately is: "Where do we go from here?" – particularly as it relates to the commodity inflation you've been reading about for the last few months.

????There's a compelling case that the boat has left the dock with regards to global inflation trends. As we've seen with accelerating "Core" CPI readings, particularly in Asian economies like China, Indonesia, and Thailand, companies globally are taking advantage of recent robust global growth trends and bullish growth forecasts to pass price increases through to consumers.

????The US, China, Japan, India, Brazil are just a few major economies where consensus growth forecasts for 2011 are much, much too high relative to our models and the current global macro backdrop of accelerating inflation and higher interest rates.

????Irrespective of the tired argument between the importance of "Core" vs. "Headline" CPI, the key takeaway here is that even if commodities start to back off their current highs (i.e. if MENA conflict stopped today and crude oil went back down to the $80-$85 range), there is a very high and underappreciated possibility that global inflation readings will continue to accelerate for two main reasons:

????1. Corporations will look to overly bullish global growth estimates as justification to pass the last two quarters of price inflation through to end-consumers in an attempt to protect both margins and earnings.

????2. The recent global trend of public officials caving in to populist pressure to increase subsidies, transfer payments, and wages will continue to add to the demand-side inflationary pressure and exacerbate the current supply/demand imbalances of many commodities in the near term. Longer term, this artificial support of consumer demand is likely to result in additional price pass-through to end-consumers, which is likely to stymie consumption growth over the intermediate term.

????Since we all know where consensus is regarding the current lofty global growth assumptions, we'll just skip right to addressing point #2. A few specific examples of the recent global trend of increasing subsidies, transfer payments, and wages include:

????? China: As the government moves to rebalance the economy towards a greater reliance on domestic consumption, minimum wage hikes are anticipated in all 31 provinces for the second consecutive year, with key populations such as Guangdong, Beijing, and Shanghai are at the forefront of gains.

????? Indonesia: Plans to remove longstanding subsidies for fuel in March have been scrapped. In the past, the removal of such subsidies has led to protests, which brought down Indonesian governments, such as the Suharto regime in the late '90's.

????? MENA: Speaking of protests, Jordan, Algeria, Morocco, Yemen, Libya, and, perhaps most importantly, Saudi Arabia have flooded their economies with transfer payments to ward off current and future protesters. Specifically, the Saudi royal family just announced a $37 billion benefits package last week in what may turn out to be a moot effort to prevent a domestic social upheaval.

????? India: In its latest budget (released Monday) the government is attempting to boost incomes through greater income tax exemptions. Moreover, it is increasing subsidies for housing loans and allocating 1.44 trillion rupees for food and fuel subsidies. Additional subsidies are expected to be announced in the coming weeks.

????? Thailand: The government just recently extended a program that provides free electricity and public transportation for the poor.

????? Brazil: President Rousseff just announced a $1.3 billion increase in funding for Brazil's Bolsa Familia transfer program, which will allow even more families to receive benefits.

????Perhaps more so than the other countries, Hong Kong's capitulation on this front revealed an interesting takeaway as it relates this trend with respect to developing vs. developed economies. After Chief Executive Donald Tsang (the highest ranking Hong Kong official) was assaulted amid a wave of public protests earlier this week, Financial Secretary John Tsang agreed to hand out cash, tax rebates, pension injections to the tune of HK$6,000 in each instance. This is in addition to his decision last week to wave public housing rents for two months and provide subsidies for electricity bills while talking up the dangerous inflationary pressures of providing cash handouts.

????Addressing the media, Tsang had this to say: "We find this is the best way to respond to demands from residents…"

????Given that most regard Hong Kong as a reasonably developed economy, it was interesting to see its government give in to populist demands for additional handouts. It suggests that this trend may no longer be contained to developing nations like those of the MENA region, India, and China.

????All told, we've been beating the table on global stagflation since October. Now that consensus has figured out the inflation component as oil trades above $100 per barrel, our task is to figure out how to time consensus' uncovering of the bearish growth factor on the short side of equities. If 2008 is any guide, they will kick, scream, and buy every dip on the way down – provided we're headed there; ultimately, time and space will tell.