????上周末利比亞發生了動亂，成了犧牲在阿拉伯世界不穩定性下的第一個盛產石油的國家。許多國際石油企業耗費數年之功，才在這個閉塞的北非國家建立了分支機構，其中最值得注意的是意大利的石油巨頭埃尼集團（Eni）。對于這些公司來說，利比亞的動亂實在是個壞消息。自從針對利比亞的貿易制裁被解除以來，利比亞已經成了能源投資的溫床。如果現在的利比亞政權倒臺，從英國石油公司（BP）到埃克森美孚（ExxonMobil）在內的大型油企，很可能會損失成百上千萬美元的投資和未來的預期收益，在某些情況下，這種損失甚至可能高達數十億美元。

????就在一周前，如果有人說穆阿瑪爾?卡扎菲可能被趕下臺，恐怕還會被人斥為癡人說夢。卡扎菲原本是一名陸軍上校，他在1969年奪取了這個人口稀少的國家的政權，當時年僅27歲。自掌權以來，卡扎菲已經用他的理念徹底地改造了這個國家。一提起這個沙漠中的國家，人們總是不免會對這位“中東怪客”非議一番。

????不過就在上周末，卡扎菲似乎突然失去了對權力的掌控。抗議者點燃了政府大樓和卡扎菲的肖像。利比亞動亂的速度之快，幾乎讓所有人都猝不及防。相比之下，伊朗革命經過了一年的抗議示威，才在1979年迫使伊朗國王下臺。不過在這個社交媒體的新時代里，革命的速度似乎也進化到了“微博速度”。

????不過卡扎菲已經決定反擊了。與突尼斯和埃及的動亂不同，卡扎菲下令開槍鎮壓抗議者，似乎沒有任何良心上的不安，甚至出動了戰斗機來轟炸示威人群。日前卡扎菲在利比亞國家電視臺的節目中露面，表示了自己反抗的決心，他發誓將留在利比亞，“直到最后”。

????“茉莉花革命”最終將演變成什么樣子，目前還不明朗。現在就斷言卡扎菲會下臺還為時過早。要知道，卡扎菲躲過了美國的數次直接襲擊，而且從殘酷的國際制裁中幸存了下來。多年以來，卡扎菲利用利比亞的石油財產賄賂部落領袖，換取了他們的支持。而抗議者們既沒有領袖，也沒有組織。這次起義失敗的速度可能會和它爆發的速度一樣快。

????不過如果卡扎菲真的下臺了，那么利比亞的大量石油資產的命運將何去何從，還是未知之數。自從利比亞發生動亂以來，國際油市應聲上漲，未來的日子里還可能漲得更高。利比亞境內的大多數石油公司都疏散了非必要的人員，并且關閉了一些設施。埃尼集團昨晚表示，該公司已經關閉了其Greensteam天然氣管線，這條管線擔負著意大利10%的天然氣供應。（不過由于意大利擁有后備儲備和替代資源，因此預計意大利不會出現天然氣短缺的局面。）

????有報道稱利比亞的一些港口已經封閉，還有人稱卡扎菲引爆了一些石油設施，以“懲罰”他的敵人。不過這些報道大部分未經證實。埃尼集團表示，該公司的石油設施沒有任何一處受到攻擊，而且只有部分設施暫時關閉了。

埃尼集團的風險敞口

????利比亞每天出口160萬桶原油，占世界消費的1.8%。雖然利比亞陷入無政府狀態的可能性很小，但也足以讓石油貿易商感到恐慌了。不過在短期內，利比亞的供應缺口很容易就能被其它石油輸出國組織（OPEC）的成員所填補——比如沙特阿拉伯的閑置產能是每天400萬桶原油。盡管如此，利比亞仍然是歐洲高品質石油的重要來源，如果利比亞的供應中斷持續下去，那么歐洲一定會深切思念利比亞的高品質石油。

????說起利比亞對世界石油市場的重要性，沒人比埃尼集團的首席執行官保羅?斯卡洛尼認識得更深刻了。斯卡洛尼一向對媒體很友好，不過這次他對利比亞局勢緘口不言，一直持觀望態度。埃尼集團的官員告訴《財富》雜志：利比亞的原油占了埃尼集團原油總產量的13%，該集團每天有244000桶原油產自利比亞。

????埃尼集團很早就進入了利比亞，并自此在該國扮演了重要的角色。卡扎菲上臺時，埃尼集團已經在利比亞運營了10年之久。聯合國從上世紀90年初開始對利比亞進行貿易制裁，一直到2004年才結束。在這段漫長的制裁期里，埃尼集團是該國境內唯一一家西方石油公司。

????制裁結束后，許多國際石油公司都宣稱要重返利比亞。利比亞還有好幾處尚未開采的石油和天然氣田。利比亞已經和埃克森美孚、英國石油公司、殼牌、法國的道達爾石油公司（Total）和挪威國家石油公司（Statoil）等跨國企業簽訂了開采和生產協議。

????埃尼集團對利比亞的忠心也得到了回報，2007年，它與利比亞簽署了一項長達10年的投資合同，投資額高達280億美元。利比亞還同意將埃尼集團所有的石油和天然氣合同分別延長到2042年和2047年。據稱卡扎菲本人從這些銷售合同里拿到了一大筆回扣。

卡扎菲的交易

????利比亞現在的石油產量只有上世紀60年代卡扎菲掌權之前的一半。隨著鉆井和勘探技術的日新月異，利比亞很可能會在世界能源舞臺上扮演一個更重要的角色。

????利比亞巨大的天然氣儲量對殼牌石油公司來說最為重要，殼牌正在升級利比亞的液化天然氣設施，以便將大量的天然氣出口到英國。同時，殼牌正在利比亞各地開采更多的天然氣。2007年，英國石油公司與利比亞簽署了一項為期多年的生產合同，合同價值至少為9億美元。該公司將在一個比整個科威特面積還大的地區同時開采陸地和海洋油氣資源。在未來20年里，英國石油公司在利比亞的總投資可能會高達200億美元。

????2008年，埃克森美孚重新進入利比亞，該公司承諾投資9700萬美元，用于開采利比亞的離岸石油和天然氣。它還向利比亞政府支付了7200萬美元的“簽字費”，并且同意出資2500萬美元，資助面向利比亞公民的獎學金計劃。在未來10年里，預計埃克森美孚花在利比亞的錢還會更多。

????不幸的是，如果卡扎菲被驅離利比亞，那么這些石油公司簽署的天價合同將無異于一堆廢紙。無論是誰接管了政權，新政權無疑會想要重新協商這些合同，而這將削減石油公司的利潤。新政府甚至可能會將石油工業全盤收歸國有，永久驅逐所有外國石油公司，就像20世紀30年代的墨西哥一樣。

????不過可以肯定的是，利比亞將繼續向世界出口石油和天然氣。如果卡扎菲政權倒臺，利比亞可能會出現一次小小的供應中斷。但無論是誰接掌了政權，新政府的第一要務，很可能就是讓油井盡快恢復鉆油。不過，最終究竟誰能獲得這些油井的開采權，現在尚不可知。

????譯者：樸成奎

????The instability in the Arab world claimed its first oil-rich victim over the weekend with the uprising in Libya. That's bad news for the bevy of international oil firms that have set up shop in the cloistered North African nation over the years, most notably Eni, the Italian oil giant. Libya has become a hot bed of energy investment since the lifting of trade sanctions seven years ago. Major oil companies from BP to ExxonMobil could now stand to lose millions, and in some cases, billions of dollars in investments and expected future revenue if the current regime falls.

????Just a week ago it would have been unthinkable to suggest that Muammar Qaddafi could be ousted from power. The former army colonel, who seized power of the sparsely populated country in 1969 at the tender age of 27, had totally reshaped the country in his image. It would be impossible to mention the desert nation without some crack about its eccentric leader.

????But suddenly over one weekend, Qaddafi seemed to lose his grip on power. Protesters set fire to government building and burned his likeness in effigy. The sheer speed of the uprising caught nearly everyone off guard. To put it in perspective, it took over a year of protests to oust the Shah of Iran in 1979. But in this new world of social media, revolutions seem to move at the speed of tweets.

????Nevertheless, Qaddafi is determined to fight back, and unlike in Tunisia and Egypt, he seems to have no qualms in gunning down protesters en masse and even using fighter jets to bomb crowds. On Libyan state television yesterday, he showed his defiance, vowing to remain in the country "until the end."

????It is still unclear what will come of this latest chapter of the "Jasmine Revolution." To say that Qaddafi's ouster is a done deal is a bit premature. He has survived direct attacks from the United States and years of crippling international sanctions. He has the support of tribal leaders in the country, who he has bribed for years using the country's oil wealth. The protesters have no leader and no organization. This uprising could fizzle out just as fast as it has exploded.

????But if Qaddafi should fall, the fate of the country's vast oil wealth would be up in the air. Oil markets rallied significantly on the news this week and could move higher in the days to come. Most oil companies have evacuated non-essential personnel and have shut down some of their operations. Eni said last night that it has shut down its Greensteam natural gas pipeline, which supplies 10% of Italy's gas supplies (there is not expected to be any shortage of gas in the country due to backup reserves and alternative sources).

????There have been reports of port closures and talk of Qaddafi blowing up oil installations to "punish" his enemies, but those reports remain largely unconfirmed. Eni said that none of its oil installations have been attacked and that only some were offline.

Eni's exposure

????The mere chance that Libya, which exports 1.6 million barrels of oil a day (1.8% of world consumption), could fall into anarchy was enough to spook oil traders. But any short-term supply disruption could easily be filled by other OPEC members, like Saudi Arabia, which has 4 million barrels of spare capacity at its disposal. Nevertheless, Libya remains an important source of high-quality oil for Europe, which would be sorely missed if supply disruptions persist.

????No one is more aware of how important Libya is to the world oil markets than Paolo Scaroni, the chief executive of the Italian oil giant Eni (E). The normally media-friendly chief executive has stayed mum on the situation and has taken a wait-and-see approach. Around 13% of Eni's total crude production, some 244,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day, comes from Libya, Eni officials tell Fortune.

????The company entered Libya 10 years before Qaddafi came to power and has played a significant role in the country ever since. It was the only major Western oil company to remain in the country during the long UN trade embargo against Libya, which began in the early 1990s and ended in 2004.

????Since then, dozens of international oil companies have been clamoring to get back into Libya. The country has several untapped oil and natural gas fields and has inked exploration and production deals with the likes of ExxonMobil, BP, Shell, France's Total (TOT) and Norway's Statoil.

????But Eni was rewarded for its loyalty in 2007 when it entered into a massive 10-year $28 billion investment deal with Libya. The country also agreed to extend all existing oil and natural gas supply contracts through 2042 and 2047, respectively, with Qaddafi reportedly receiving a generous cut of the profit from those sales.

Qaddafi's deals

????Oil production in Libya is now half of what it was before Qaddafi came into power in the 1960s. With today's new drilling and mapping technology, Libya could potentially become a much bigger player on the world energy stage.

????The country's vast natural gas reserves are of primary importance to Shell (RDSA), which is upgrading a liquefied natural gas facility in the country to export large amounts of gas to the UK. It is also exploring for more natural gas around the country. In 2007, BP inked a

????multiyear production contract with Libya worth at least $900 million. It will explore for oil and gas both onshore and offshore in an area larger than Kuwait. Total spending by BP (BP) in Libya could reach as much as $20 billion over the next two decades.

????In 2008, ExxonMobil (XOM, Fortune 500) reentered the country, agreeing to invest $97 million to explore for oil and gas off the Libyan coast. It also paid a $72 million "signature bonus" to the state and agreed to pay $25 million to fund scholarship programs for Libyan citizens. The company is also expected to spend much more money in the country over the next decade.

????Unfortunately for the oil companies, these massive deals would most likely become worthless pieces of paper if Qaddafi were to leave the country. Any regime that comes to power will undoubtedly want to renegotiate the contracts, which could see less profit for the oil companies. A new government could even fully nationalize the industry and kick all foreigner oil companies out forever, similar to what happened in Mexico in the 1930s.

????But there is no doubt that Libya will continue to export oil and natural gas to the world. A small supply disruption should be expected if the regime falls, but whoever takes power will most likely make it a priority to get the wells pumping as fast as possible. Who will ultimately be pumping those wells remains in doubt.