????中國的年均GDP增長率高達8.5%-9.5%，這個數據已經夠讓人震驚了。然而最近有幾份經濟報告樂觀地預測，到2013年至2015年，印度的GDP增長率將開始超過中國。這些報告之所以做出這一結論，是由于印度近年來出現了一些趨勢，例如勞動人口年輕化且受教育程度提高、退休人口相對較少、儲蓄率較高等，此外印度政府還在持續進行大范圍的結構性改革，以及增加基礎建設支出。

????根據聯合國的測算，未來印度的年齡撫養比（指工作人口中需要撫養兒童及老人的比例）將會大大得到改善，從2010年的55.6%下降到2025年的47.2%。中國比印度先一步享受到了大量的勞動人口所帶來的好處，不過中國很快將進入老齡化社會，勞動人口的數量也將下降。中國的撫養比也將從2010的39.1%上升到2025年的45.8%。在未來10年里，全世界新增勞動人口將有26%是由印度貢獻的。因此，印度的技術工人人數也將大大增加，這些技術工人將會大量儲蓄，而這筆錢反過來又可以被投資于印度的經濟中。

????如果印度能夠為人民提供教育、更快地進行推遲已久的商業改革，并且能夠處理更大的人口基數所帶來的環境后果的話，那么印度只會從這種“人口紅利”中得到好處。

????印度的教育體系很不完善，為此印度政府已經采取了一系列措施，這些措施很有希望取得成績，不過印度政府仍然有大量的工作要做。在印度，只有74%的男性和48%的女性受過教育；而在中國，96%的男性和88%的女性都受過教育。印度的“知識經濟”雖然廣受吹捧，但是它的知識經濟只雇傭了223萬印度人，這個數字與7.5億的工作人口基數相比，實在顯得微不足道。

????辛格政府也意識到了這些不足，并且已經開始實施一系列改革，包括在未來幾年里劃撥600億美元資金用于擴充初等教育體系；制訂法案，以允許外國教育提供商在印度進行運作；以及其它能夠促進私營部門投資印度教育業的措施。歸功于這些改革，印度失學兒童的人數已經從2000年的1800萬人減少到2005年的560萬人，而且小學的輟學率也有所下降。

增長障礙

????不過，盡管有這些發展，但是印度未來所面臨的挑戰仍不免使人感到氣餒。目前，只有12%的印度公民接受了高等教育，政府希望到2017年，這個比例能夠達到21%。世界知名的印度理工學院（Indian Institutes of Technology）是若干所工程和科技院校的總稱，不過它每年只招收7000名學生。印度政府指出，在未來10年里，在2.4億到2.5億印度人中將會出現所謂的“技能差距”。目前印度的各種行業培訓和技術培訓學校每年只能吸收110萬名學生。在卡皮爾?席保（Kapil Sibal）這位有才干的、精力充沛的人力資源發展部長面前，橫亙著大量艱巨的任務。

????印度的企業改革也只完成了一半。盡管總理辛格的努力值得贊賞，不過傳說中的“許可證為王”現象在很大程度上依然存在。所謂“許可證為王”（license raj），是指要想在印度建立和運營企業，就要走許多復雜的手續和繁文縟節。不過政府已經朝正確的方向采取了一些舉措，比如印度政府正在努力簡化錯綜復雜的稅法，而且許多新的領域也已經對外國直接投資開放了。盡管采取了這些舉措，但在世界銀行的經商便利指數（Ease of Doing Business Index）排名上，印度在183個國家里仍然只排到第134位。例如在印度建立一座倉庫的平均成本（包括獲取許可證和執照的成本和聯接公用設施的成本）就比中國高了四倍多。

????國大黨領導的印度政府在六年前就已經承諾進行改革，但至今收效甚微。改革速度的緩慢也讓印度人越來越感到沮喪。加快改革進程是至關重要的，它既能使本地企業更加高效，也有助于吸引外國直接投資（印度吸引的外國直接投資遠遠落后于中國，而且在2010年還回落了超過30%）。

????最后，在我們為印度的“人口紅利”歡欣鼓舞之前，還有一個問題 ：印度次大陸（和全世界）是否真的能承受14億印度人？加爾各答的人口密度已經超過了紐約兩倍多。食品通脹問題正困擾著印度經濟。自從去年以來，洋蔥以及其它蔬菜價格已經上漲了71%（蔬菜是大多數印度窮人的主要食物）。精簡農產品供應鏈可使印度的食物短缺問題暫時得到緩解，不過從長期看來，環境的惡化將使印度很難大范圍地提高農產品產量。

????全球變暖以及“大氣棕色云”已經對印度的農業產量產生了負面影響。所謂“大氣棕色云”，是指常年漂浮在印度大部分地區上空的一層密集的煙霧，它主要是由于燃燒柴油、木材和牛糞所生的。此外印度長年存在著8%左右的電力短缺。隨著越來越多的中產階級開始購買電視、空調和其它電器，問題只會越來越糟。印度已經是世界第三大溫室氣體排放國，而且現在印度的人均排放量還很低。目前一個美國人每年排放的二氧化碳幾乎相當于13個印度人的排放量。印度的經濟繁榮是一種高碳型經濟，再考慮到其迅速增長的人口，印度所面臨的環境問題似乎比教育和經濟方面的挑戰更加嚴峻。

????和印度的經濟增長一樣重要的問題是：印度和全世界做好迎接14億個富裕印度人的準備了嗎？

????本文作者安佳?曼紐爾是The RiceHadley Group LLC公司的負責人，也是斯坦福大學國際安全與合作中心（Stanford's Center for International Security and Cooperation）的訪問學者。

????譯者：樸成奎

????Several recent economic reports glowingly predict that by 2013-15, India will start outpacing China's stunning annual GDP growth rate of 8.5-9.5%. A number of trends in India lead to this conclusion, including a young, increasingly educated labor force, relatively few retired people to care for, India's high savings rate, the massive structural reforms the Indian government continues to undertake, and increased infrastructure spending.

????The UN estimates that India's age dependency ratio (the number of working age people supporting children and the elderly) will improve substantially, from 55.6% in 2010 to 47.2% in 2025. China, by contrast, has already reaped the benefit of a large working age population, which will soon begin to age and decline: its dependency ratio will rise from 39.1% in 2010 to 45.8% in 2025. India alone will contribute 26% of the total rise in the world's entire working age population over the next 10 years, thus -- the argument goes -- adding a large number of skilled workers, who will have larger savings, which can in turn be invested in their economy.

????India will only be able to take advantage of this "demographic dividend," however, if it can educate its people, move more quickly on long-delayed business reforms, and tackle the environmental consequences of an even larger population.

????The Indian government has taken promising steps to improve its inadequate education system, but an enormous amount of work remains. Only 74% of Indian men and 48% of Indian women are literate, compared to 96% (men) and 88% (women) in China. India's much-touted knowledge economy employs only about 2.23 million Indians out of a 750 million strong working population.

????Prime Minister Manmohan Singh's government is aware of these deficiencies and has started to implement a series of reforms, including setting aside $60 billion over the next several years to augment the primary education system, tabling bills that allow foreign education providers to operate in India, and others that will facilitate private sector investment in Indian education. Thanks to these reforms, the number of children out of school has dropped from 18 million in 2000 to 5.6 million in 2005, and dropout ratios in primary schools have improved as well.

Obstacles to growth

????Even with these promising developments, however, the challenges ahead are daunting: at present, only 12% of India's citizens enter higher education, and the government hopes to increase this to 21% by 2017. The Indian Institutes of Technology -- a group of universities focused on engineering and technology -- are world-renowned, but offer only a miniscule 7,000 places to students each year. The Indian government has identified a skills gap in between 240 -- 250 million persons in the next ten years. Current vocational and technical training schools unfortunately only have the capacity to absorb 1.1 million students a year. Kapil Sibal, the talented and energetic Minister for Human Resource Development has a herculean task ahead.

????Indian corporate sector reforms are also only half complete. Despite Prime Minister Singh's admirable efforts, the legendary "license raj" -- the elaborate red tape required to set up and run businesses in India -- is still much in evidence. Again, the government has taken some steps in the right direction: it is actively working to simplify the byzantine tax code, and many new sectors have been opened to foreign direct investment. In spite of these promising steps, India still ranks a low 134 out of 183 countries on the World Bank's Ease of Doing Business Index. For example, the per capita cost of setting up a warehouse in India -- which involves the acquisition of permits and licenses as well as obtaining necessary utilities connections -- is slightly more than four times higher than in China.

????Indians are increasingly frustrated at the slow pace of reforms, which the Congress-led government has now promised for the past six years. Speeding up their pace is critical both to make local businesses more efficient, and attract foreign direct investment (which lags far behind foreign investment in China and sank by over 30% in 2010).

????Finally, before we celebrate a "demographic dividend," can the Indian subcontinent (and the world) sustain 1.4 billion Indians? Calcutta's population is more than twice as dense as that of New York City. Food inflation currently plagues the Indian economy: onion and other vegetable prices (staples for most poor Indians) are up 71% since last year. Streamlining the agricultural supply chain can help to relieve immediate food shortages, but in the long run, environmental degradation will make it difficult to vastly increase crop yields.

????Global warming and the "atmospheric brown cloud" -- a dense smog that permanently hangs over much of India from burning diesel, wood, and dung -- negatively impacts crop yields already. To compound the problem, India suffers from chronic electricity shortages of about 8%. And with a growing middle class buying more TVs, air conditioners and the like, the situation will only get worse. India is already the world's third largest-emitter of greenhouse gases, and that is with is current low per capita emissions rate. One American currently creates almost 13 times as much CO2 per year as one Indian. Combine a more carbon intensive, prosperous economy with a rapidly growing population, and the environmental problems India faces look even more overwhelming than its education and economic challenges.

????As desirable as Indian economic growth is -- are India and the planet ready for 1.4 billion more prosperous Indians?

????Anja Manuel is a Principal at The RiceHadley Group LLC and a Visiting Scholar at Stanford's Center for International Security and Cooperation.